Golden Era of Indian Democracy

Disclaimer: I am BJP supporter and hence my analysis may be or may not be biased. Election Commission websites are not very much user friendly. Although, I wanted to take all the supporting data from EC website, but it is difficult to find. Therefore, I have taken the data from Wikipedia. There could be some errors in the data. However, it will not have major impact on my analysis.

The results of recently concluded Jharkhand assembly election gave Lutyens media and cabal of Congress party to start propaganda that magic of Modi and BJP is waning. It is warning to Modi/BJP. Opposition unity can defeat BJP/Modi etc. They did it when BJP lost Gorakhpur Loksabha by-election and few assembly by-elections in UP. They spread similar propaganda when BJP lost Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh state elections in 2018. Assembly elections of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand have many similarities.

Assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh were conducted just before 2019 General Election. All these 3 states faced anti-incumbency factor in state but not at the center. Voters gave very clear mandate in favor of Congress. But within few months, the same voters gave very clear mandate in favor of BJP in general election. Voters are now becoming wiser. They are voting differently in different elections. They do not mix national and state issues nor they give credit of central govt. achievement to their state units. Orissa is the best example.  

Congress could not open account in Rajasthan in general election in 2019 when they are in power in state. In past, Congress dismissed such govt. saying that state govt. has lost the confidence of people. But BJP wisely did not do the same.

Rajasthan		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	73	25
	% of Votes	38.8%	58.5%
Congress	# Seats	100	0
	% of Votes	39.3%	34.24%

BJP’s voter percentage is more than Congress in MP in assembly election. But Congress won more seats. But see the swing of votes from assembly election to general election. BJP got huge victory in general election. Congress govt. is going on with thin majority in MP. BJP can plan operation Kamala here as well but they are aware that people will reject it.

Madhya Pradesh		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	109	28
	% of Votes	41.0%	58%
Congress	# Seats	114	2
	% of Votes	40.9%	34.5%

Chhattisgarh votes severely punished BJP in assembly election but rewarded BJP handsomely in general election.

Chhattisgarh		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	15	9
	% of Votes	33%	50.7%
Congress	# Seats	68	2
	% of Votes	43%	40.91%

Karnataka election is little different. Although, Congress faced anti-incumbency but BJP did not get decisive mandate. But people wanted BJP’s govt. They corrected their mistake in recently concluded by-election. BJP won 12 of 14, Congress just 2 and JDS did not open the account. They did not punish imported candidates during by-election. But they punished Congress and JDS who formed the govt. against people’s mandate.  

Karnataka		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	104	17
	% of Votes	36.34%	51.4%
Congress	# Seats	80	9
	% of Votes	38.14%	31.88%

 Jharkhand is very interesting case. In fact, Congress and JMM got less percentage of votes in assembly election than general election. If BJP and AJSU’s (8.1%) vote percentage is added, they would have got more votes than Congress+ JMM alliance. Perhaps, voters punished both BJP and AJSU for not honoring alliance mantra. Voters once again showed dislike for changing loyalties.

Jharkhand		Assembly (2019)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	25	12
	% of Votes	33.37%	55.29%
Congress + JMM	# Seats	47	2
	% of Votes	35.35%	34.58%

 My few observations in last few assembly elections,

·         Voters give more importance to the local issues during assembly election. Modi magic does not always work.
·         Caste factor still pays important role in assembly elections which is fading away in general election.
·         Voters wants local candidate. They do not like candidate imported from outside.
·         They also do not accept imported candidate from other parties. Voters are severely punishing candidates who are changing loyalties.

One more very important point. Congress central leadership campaigned very little in these assembly elections. They allowed state level leaders to run the state election. Gandhi family hardly campaigned in these state elections. It yielded results for Congress. Whereas, BJP relied on their central leadership. Modi and Amit Shah remained star campaigner in these elections. That did not yield good results.

But lastly, voter’s wisdom is remarkable. They are going as per their combined judgment. They are giving very clear message to Congress and BJP. But it is up to them whether they want to listen or not. I salute voters for their wisdom and hence welcome the outcome of Jharkhand election whole heatedly. Indian voters are becoming mature day by day and it will definitely help our democracy. This is a good new for India!

Satish Gundawar
24-Dec-2019