NM = PM

Narendra Modi is currently the most discussed person in the electronic media, print media, social media, lunch table in the office and any other social gathering. You may like him or hate him but you can’t ignore him at this moment as BJP has declared him the Prime Ministerial Candidate for the next General Election. Whether he becomes the PM of this country or not, both the events are going to impact, affect, influence the future of this country and citizen at large.

As many rightist, I also wish that he should become the PM of this country. It is not only because of my affiliation to his political ideology but also to protect the basic tenets of the democracy. In my opinion the PM should have the following,

1.       The PM must be a mass leader.

2.       The PM should not be imposed on the nation by some political party/parties after the election. In short, the citizen should know the probable PM upfront.

3.       The PM must be from the lower house and definitely not from the higher house of the parliament.

4.       The PM must be a statesman and educational qualification should be the least qualification.

5.       Someone should not become the PM just by luck or since there is no alternative!

6.       The nation must lay down the example that the most ordinary citizen can become the PM of this country and not the few privileged one!

Every news channel is currently showing their version of opinion poll on 2014 General Election. Most of them are very contradictory to each other and tilted towards their political affiliation/masters or what their business houses tell them to do. All these media drama tempted me to do my own opinion poll!! The whole exercise is completely biased towards my political affiliation and my wish to see NM as the PM of this country!!

Let me begin with the kingmaker states. AP, UP, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu are the kingmaker states of this country particularly AP has decided which party will form the government in center in last few elections. Congress or UPA will have tough time in AP, UP and Tamil Nadu in the next election. Higher the impact, better the chances of NM becoming PM and I am eager to see this happening.

The recent communal riots and extreme appeasement of minority community by central and UP state government have tarnished the image of SP and UPA in UP. This will certainly help BJP in UP. The way Congress has managed the Telangana issue in last few months and handled Jagan’s case; has certainly impacted their credibility in the state. This is going to reflect in the outcome of the election result. It may not necessarily help BJP in gaining more seats but it will certainly reduce the chances of Congress getting more seats in AP.  

It is very interesting to see that Na Mo has already visited these kingmaker states and addressed very big rallies. His rally in Tamil Nadu is supposed to be the biggest rally till date by any BJP leader in Dravidian state! His rally in Kanpur was one of the biggest by any political leader in recent days. Most interestingly he has articulated his political vision in the simplest terms in all these rallies.

Congress/UPA was deeply agitated/furious when Na Mo attended the rally of ex-military man. This is very understandable as they realized that they have already missed the bus. This is just not coincidence and he was accidently on the dais, the parivar has been working for it last 5 years. This is a major chunk of votes!! Moreover, they will influence equal number of additional votes towards BJP.

The compilation of last 2 general elections gives very interesting perspective on the voting pattern that may occur in the next general election. Needless to say that every political party must be knowing this and planning according to it. But I am interpreting it in completely biased way to show how NM can be the next PM of this country. As per my biased calculation, NDA should get 250+ seats in the next general election.

	2004					2009					2014
States	UPA	NDA	Others	Total		UPA	NDA	Others	Total		UPA	NDA	Others	Total
Uttar Pradesh	9	10	61	80		21	15	44	80		10	40	30	80
Maharashtra	22	25	1	48		25	20	3	48		21	25	2	48
A Pradesh	34	5	3	42		33	0	9	42		7	5	30	42
West Bengal	6	1	35	42		25	1	16	42		5	2	35	42
Bihar	29	11	0	40		2	32	6	40		2	30	8	40
Tamil Nadu	35		4	39		27	0	12	39		12	0	27	39
M Pradesh	4	25		29		12	16	1	29		4	25	0	29
Karnataka	8	18	2	28		6	19	3	28		10	15	3	28
Gujarat	12	14		26		11	15		26		5	21		26
Rajasthan	4	21		25		20	4	1	25		4	21	0	25
Orissa	2	7	12	21		6		15	21		3	7	11	21
Kerala	1	0	19	20		13	0	7	20		7	0	13	20
Assam	9	2	3	14		7	4	3	14		7	5	2	14
Jharkhand	12	1	1	14		1	8	5	14		1	10	3	14
Punjab	2	11		13		8	5	0	13		2	11		13
Chhattisgarh	1	10		11		1	10		11		1	10		11
Haryana	9	1		10		9	0	1	10		7	3	0	10
Delhi	6	1		7		7			7		1	6	0	7
Smaller States	12	9	13	34		24	7	3	34		16	14	4	34
Total	217	172	154	543		258	156	129	543		125	250	168	543

 

Emergence of Jagan Mohan Reddy and popularity of Mamta Didi is going to improve the tally of non-aligned parties. If Left improves their tally in Kerala, it is going to strengthen it further. Even if we like it or not regional parties will consolidate their position in their respective region. However, NDA would need support of additional 25-30 MP’s to form the government. TDP and AIDMK will definitely support NDA government mostly by participating in it. This will be a smallest coalition government and will give greater stability to the government. This will help NDA government to make India story more vibrant and viable once again.

 

Regional Parties	2009	2014
SP	23	15
BSP	21	15
JD(U)	20	8
TMC	19	15
CPI (M)	16	20
BJD	14	11
AIDMK	9	20
YSR Congress		10
TDP	6	8
CPI	4	4
Total	132	126

 

For time being, if I remove my rightwing hat and think what and who can stop NM becoming PM,

·         Only SP, BPS, TMC and YSR congress can stop! Strategy: Make some of them your friend!

·         Voters from AP and UP can stop. Strategy: Ensure Congress gets fewer seats than last time.

·         Importance of Kerala and Tamil Nadu. BJP does not have any presence in these states. Strategy: Work for getting few seats in the name of NaMo.

·         If Left consolidates their position in West Bengal, Kerala and Tripura and support UPA from outside. Strategy: No Strategy will work.

·         Last but the least, Congress supports Third / Fourth Front from outside. Strategy: Let it happen.

In short, it will be tough but not impossible task for BJP or NaMo to win. If you want brighter India, start working now towards making NM as PM!

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