A Hidden Cold War

On 6^th April 2021, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) meeting started in Vienna. USA, UK, France, Germany, Russia, China and Iran attended the meet. Iran and USA avoided face to face meeting. Therefore, remaining countries had to shuffle between two hotels to discuss the next action on the agreement signed in 2015. Iran wants US to remove all its economic sanctions which are not in line with 2015 JCPOA agreement. USA wants Iran to dismantle their nuclear ambition as per 2015 JCPOA. It is a positive move after Joe Biden took over as President. However, Iran does not believe that Europeans have any spine to convince USA and bring them to negotiations. When JCPOA discussions were happening on 6^th April, an Iranian military ship stationed in Red sea was apparently hit by Israeli mine.

Meanwhile Iran celebrated their "Nuclear Technology Industry Day" on 10^th April 2021 with big fanfare when JCPOA meet was still going on. Iran announced that they have started testing of IR-9 centrifuge. It will double their Uranium enrichment capacity from earlier IR-8 centrifuge. On the very next day on 11^th April 2021, a powerful explosion took place in Iran’s most important Uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. The blast took place underneath 20 ft. cement concrete protective slab. The blast destroyed primary and secondary power supply to the enrichment centrifuge. Estimated 5000 centrifuges will go out of service for next 7 to 8 months causing tremendous delays in Iran’s nuclear program. Iran promptly blamed Israel for this sabotage and owed for revenge. Media report does not give very clear information on whether physical explosive device was used or it was cyber-attack. But important point to note that Israel could manage to penetrate 6 layers of Iranian security at Natanz nuclear facility and it was not for the first time. Israeli media did hint that Mossad was behind this incident. On the very same day (11-Apr-21), US Secretary of Defense Lloyds Austin was visiting Israel. During joint press conference between Lloyds Austin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu clearly mentioned that “I will never allow Iran to obtain the nuclear capability to carry out its genocidal goal of eliminating Israel.” (https://youtu.be/BZk2fkD05GQ) This is a clear indication that Israel may be behind Natanz-21 incidence. Israel has audaciously carried out this attack when US Secretary of Defense was visiting them. It means that US had blessing to Natanz sabotage.

But Israel-Iran cold war, which I say hidden cold war, is not new and going on last few decades. But we are so much focused on cold war between USA and Russia, that we avoid seeing other cold war going on in the world. Let’s go into past and see few incidences which is fueling this cold war further. Just 5 months back, on 27-Nov-2020, Iran’s top nuclear scientist and head of Iran’s Defense Innovation and Research Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was travelling with his wife and security convoy outskirts of Tehran. He was shot down by satellite control machine gun mounted on Nissan pickup van. Media reports say that it was AI (artificial Intelligence) enabled satellite control machine gun put on Nissan pickup van. It was parked outside of the road. It fired 14 rounds of bullet on his bulletproof car hitting 4 bullets in his forehead. His wife was sitting just 10 inches away from him and she did not get any scratch. His security officer threw himself to protect him. He also died in the incidence. A powerful blast destroyed pickup van and destroyed all the evidences completely. Iran promptly blamed Israel for this killing and owed to take revenge. Understandably, Israel did not comment on the incidence. One more clue of their involvement is there further in this article. But if media reports to be believed and Israel indeed was behind it. Then see the meticulous planning of this adventure.

Let’s go little in past in last year. General Qasem Soleimani (Head of Iran’s prestigious Quds, intelligence Operation of Iran) was second most popular figure after Grand Ayatollah Khamenei in Iran. He flew from Syrian airport using private plane of Cham Wings and landed on Bagdad military airbase on midnight of 3^rd Jan 2020. It is believed that he was travelling to meet Prime Minister of Iraq. US drone flew from US’s military base in Kuwait and fired missile on his convoy with precision and killed him along with other militant leaders of Iraq. The operation was conducted by US and officially confirmed by Donald Trump. But Israel had active participation in this whole incidence. Israeli mole in Cham Airlines and Bagdad airport immediately shared exact location and key information to Mossad. Mossad immediately shared that information with US command center for this operation.

Let’s go further in past again. On 31^st Jan 2018 midnight, Mossad agents conducted a raid on a warehouse in industrial area outskirts of Tehran. They cut 32 safes using gas cutting machine and stole 500 kg of Iran’s archives of nuclear program. They stole 55 thousand pages and 183 CDs. The operation took 6 hrs and 29 minutes! Mossad agents left Iran 2 hrs before next security batch arrives at the warehouse. The incident was not in public domain for 3 months. The world came to know about it when Netanyahu held a press conference on 30^th April 2018 (https://youtu.be/qmSao-j7Xr4). Watch it very carefully. He says “Dr. Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, remember this name!” Now you can connect at least 2 dots! He also confirmed that private presentation was made to Donald Trump before making it public. After a week, on 8-May-2018 US, President Donald Trump (https://youtu.be/-QiMvernIL0) said that “A giant fiction that a murderous regime desires only peaceful nuclear energy program’ and they are withdrawing from JCPOA signed in 2015. Now Joe Biden is trying to revive the same agreement.

The espionage story does not end here. Let’s go further in past. A malware Stuxnet stuck Iran’s nuclear facility at Natanz. This malware infects windows machine and looks for specific target. It targets Siemens SCADA/PLC only. Malware was so intelligent that it will infect only 3 machines, if it does not find its target and also inert itself if target is not found. When this malware attacked on Natanz facility, it took control of Siemen’s SCADA and increased the speed of centrifuge for 15 mins. Iranian did not realize this abnormal behavior as it did not affect the centrifuge. But after 27 days, the malware attacked once again and reduced centrifuge speed to 50 Hz. This action damaged at least 1000 centrifuges and delayed Iran’s ambition of nuclear program a lot. This happened somewhere during Nov 2009 to Jan 2010. As we know, it is difficult to know who builds computer virus or malware. It is still not known who developed it. Whatever computers it infected worldwide, ~60% were found in Iran only. Some media reports say it was built by Israel with the help of US. Some report says, it was European countries and US built it. But interesting part is that malware exactly knew how to destroy centrifuge in cyber-attack. One can only speculate how did they do it. Rogue Pakistani Nuclear Scientist Dr. A. Q. Khan stole centrifuge design from Dutch company where he was working. Pakistan has the same design. However, rogue Dr. A. Q. Khan sold this design secretly to Iran, North Korea and Libya. Iran is/was using the same design of centrifuge. Apparently, malware developers studied Dutch centrifuge design. Israel’s Iranian mole managed to get entry into Natanz facility. He just inserted pen drive into one computer and it spread malware into the facility. Natanz facility is isolated from outside computer network. Stuxnet was dormant for some years. One day, one scientist of this facility connected his office laptop to open internet network and latest malware downloaded into his laptop. When he connected his laptop into Natanz facility, the latest and fatal malware version was spread into the facility. The rest is the history.

Israel-Iran cold war has ramifications not only in middle east but for the entire world and hence warrants focus on it. Israel, European countries and USA do not want Iran to acquire nuclear capability. Geo politics is always complex subject. Pakistan became the first Sunni Muslim country to acquire nuclear capabilities. The Sunni Muslim world is proud of it. Feud between Sunni world and Shia Iran is open secret. The same Sunni world also does not want Shia Iran to get nuclear capability. We have recently seen Donald Trump facilitated diplomatic relationship of Israel with Bahrain, UAE, Sudan and Morocco. It is predicted that Saudi will also follow the suit very soon. Media reported a clandestine meeting of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, then USA Secretary of State Mike Pompeo with Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) in Neom on Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea coast on 22-Nov-2020. I am sure Sunni world is secretly supporting Israel for its war against Iran.  

Readers may wonder that only Iran is at the receiving end and Iranians are not retaliating? Just 2 days back, Syrian missile landed near Israeli nuclear facility. Israel blames that it was a work of Iranian backed militia in Syria. What do we Indian do here? Both Iran and Israel are close friends of India and therefore just watch and enjoy unfolding drama! 

Satish Gundawar

24-April-21