Will USA’s Wisdom Prevail?

I had written a blog “Anarchy of Democracy” in Jan-21 and written that US President Mr. Ronald Reagan made a historical speech in the British Parliament on 8-Jun-1982. He said “We must take action to assist the campaign for democracy. Foster the infrastructure of democracy, system of free press, union, political parties, universities”. US was doing exactly same in Afghanistan since 2001! All Human Development Index viz. Life Expectancy, Women Education, GDP, Per Capita income, Electricity to Citizen and internet penetration increased multifold during US experiment of democracy in Afghanistan. But who is USA to impose democracy on Afghanistan? Was Ashraf Ghani’s govt popular, whether Afghans wanted Ghani’s govt or Taliban’s govt? We need to ask these questions. After, Americans ran away from Bagram airbase on 2-July, Taliban started their campaign aggressively and captured entire Afghanistan in 45 days! They did not face major resistance. Afghans welcomed them at many places, Afghan govt forces deserted and joined them. This indicates that large number of Afghans wanted Taliban govt and they have it now. USA spent over 3 Trillion Dollars for experiment of democracy which has gone to drain now. President Trump realized that Pakistan is milking them. The cost of Afghan war will impact on American economy very soon. He took wise decision and declared that US Military will be withdrawn by 11-Sep-21. Will newly found US wisdom prevail in other parts of the World? USA’s NGOs (and social media platforms) are directly responsible for instigating Arab Spring in 11 countries in 2011. Civil war is still going on in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq etc. Let’s see what is happening there now.

·         Libya is homogenous with respect to race, ethnicity, and religion. 97% Libyans are Sunni Arab. Therefore, it is easier to resolve and stop the civil war. Libya is now controlled by three groups. Government of National Accord (GNA) based out of Tripoli. Libyan Nation Army (LNA) and House of Representative (HOR) based out of Tobruk. Southern Libya is controlled by Al-Qaeda, ISIS. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are already marginalized in Libya. The major fight is between GNA and LNA/HOR. GNA is UN recognized government whereas LNA is headed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. USA says that they do not have any presence or intervention or interest or role in Libya. But Khalifa Haftar is US citizen and his family still lives in USA. Saudi Arabia, UAE are supporting Khalifa Haftar and are close allies of USA. If USA instructs Saudi, UAE and Egypt to stop supporting Khalifa Haftar, civil war will stop very soon. Let Libyans decide their own fate.

·         Syria is complex country as it has different races, ethnicities and religions. Sunni majority country is governed by Alawite (Shia) minority. Four distinct groups are fighting with each other. Syrian Govt forces, National Defense Forces of Syrian Christians and Shabiha (Alawite Shia) private army is Alawite Shia camp. Free Syrian army (FSA), defected Sunni soldiers of Syrian army is second camp. Terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra, ISIS is third camp. Ethnic Kurds has Syrian Democratic Front (SDF). They have formed independent state Rojava in Northern Syria in 2013. All these 4 camps have fought with each other. US government is supporting FSA and Kurds with arms, ammunitions and training. US Army directly attacked Syrian govt forces (Alawite camp) in 2017. In mid-2018, Trump has announced that they want to remove Dr. Bashar Al Assad’s govt. However, Trump administration suddenly announced withdrawal from Syria in 2019. But they never evacuated completely. They are still there. Although they completely abandoned Kurds, they are still actively supporting FSA.  Currently they have over 1000 soldiers in Syria. If USA completely withdraws from Syria, the civil war may not stop completely. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iran and Russia would be still active in Syria. Let’s hope Biden withdraws completely from Syria and forces Saudi Arabia and Qatar to stop supporting FSA. Iran and Russia support Assad’s regime. They would jointly handle Turkey properly.

·         Iraq is also equally complex as it has different races, ethnicities and religions. Sunni majority in eastern Iraq, Shia majority in southern and western side and Kurd majority in north of Iraq. Shia majority country was ruled by Saddam Hussein (Sunni Muslim) for long time. American army invaded Iraq in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein. US banned ruling Baath party and disbanded military after collapse of Saddam’s regime. The political power balance shifted from Sunni to Shia. It fueled civil war, political instability, widespread corruption and sectarian conflicts. The sectarian conflict is mainly between Govt forces (primarily Shia), ISIS (Sunni terrorist groups) and Kurd forces (Peshmerga). Major US forces were withdrawn in 2010-11 after establishment of democratic Iraqi government. But rise of ISIS triggered international intervention (The Global Coalition) led by US including NATO forces, European Union and Arab League in 2014. Iraqi govt forces, Global Coalition and Peshmerga fought together to defeat ISIS and Al-Qaeda. They were defeated in 2017. Approximately half a million Iraqi are killed in civil war since 2003. Today Iraq has democratically elected govt comprises of all sectarian groups but dominated by Shia. This is peculiar country where US and Iran are supporting Shia govt. But today Iraq has become power struggle ground for Iran and USA. Now President Biden announced withdrawal by this year end and will not participate in combat operations.

Libya, Syria and Iraq were governed by mix of socialist and communist dictators for long. Although citizen’s liberty was curtailed by these dictators, all of them had very good human development index in education, healthcare, women freedom, per capita income etc. There is one common observation in these three countries. When US and NATO forces attacked on them, they destroyed their oil/petroleum infrastructure, roads, airports etc. One wonder why did they do that? One more common observation. One section of society invited, welcomed foreign forces to overthrow existing regime. They did not get any benefits, but they helped in destroying their own country. Now they are repenting.  

USA had played a game of democracy in many countries like Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, (other countries where US instigated Arab Spring), Afghanistan, Sudan and Latin American countries such as Cuba and Columbia. They miserably failed everywhere. Their intervention did not bring in true democracy. On the contrary, these countries went into civil war, infrastructure is destroyed completely, high unemployment, high child mortality, reduction in literacy rate, very high inflation, people become poorer.

USA should stop following President Regan’s dream of democracy. They should realize that democracy is just not way of governance, but it is way of life. Every race, ethnicity, religion, culture is not compatible with democracy. There are many prerequisite and conditions before a nation adopts democracy. The wisdom they showed in Afghanistan should prevail in Libya, Syria and Iraq and withdraw honorably at the earliest.

Satish Gundawar

18-Aug-21

Watch these international events carefully

1. Mass graves found in Catholic school in Canada. Approximately 800 unmarked graves of children have found. Native Canadians have burnt 8 churches till now as a reaction of it. Vatican has refused to apologize for this.

2. MBS has refused to recognize Hadith (few) as religious text as they were written after 250 years from dealth of prophet.

3. Israel open their embassy in Abu Dhabi.

4. Tigray genocide in Ethiopia by Nobel laurel (for peace) PM Abiy Ahmed.

5. Regime change in Israel and Iran. Both have extreme religious leader as head of the state.

6. American started withdrawal from Afghanistan. They vacated their main airbase from Bagram.

Last but not least 😜

7. Donald Trump is back 😃

Satish Gundawar 

3-Jul-21

Who is Controlling USA Today?

I am in dilemma while writing this. Because we Indians deeply believe in "सर्वे संतू निरामया". Therefore, I am nervous while writing on someone's health. But when it comes to health of US President, then it impacts entire world.

I was very surprised when Americans elected Joe Biden as their president. They generally select smart, good looking, young, good orator as their President. But Joe Biden is 78 years old. He is the oldest President in the history of US. He made lot of funny mistakes during his presidential campaign. But he was finally elected.

His health condition has come to forefront in US media once again. One video was viral in March. Biden fell down three times while climbing Air Force One.

Ronny Jackson, former Whitehouse physician and senator is insisting that President must go through Cognitive test.

Donald Trump is already talking about mid term polls.

Let's hope that President Biden is in good health and he will deliver the best as world leader. He has started JCPOA which was stopped by Trump. He accelerated American forces withdrawal from Afghanistan. He had fruitful summit with Putin. He also accelerated vaccination program in US. He got appreciation from none other than Putin. All these events do indicate that he is very much in control.

But, if this rumor has iota of truth, then who is controlling USA? President Kamala Harris? That is what he called her in one of his public speech 😜

Satish Gundawar

9-Jul-21

Is Taliban threat to India?

Will Taliban reach our western border? If likely, then when?

Will Taliban attack on their friend Pakistan? Possibly, then when?

Will curse on Afghanistan be over after Taliban takes over control? Last 40 years, they have some foreign forces or other on their land. 

These are some of the questions come to mind when Americans started evaluation from Afghanistan.

Why is it morale booster for Taliban?

The way US forces left Bagram airbase on last Friday 2-July is very shameful. They ran away taking their heavy arms and ammunition in dark. They didn't even inform their new commander and Afghanistan authorities. They put off electricity and just ran away!

Taliban has already captured 30% of Afghanistan. Afghan govt forces are deserting and crossing over border or surrendering to Taliban.

The target date of evacuation for NATO forces is Sept 11. But it is likely that they will even runaway before that.

Taliban will takeover Afghanistan in next 2 months. Who is laughing? China, Pakistan, Russia? 

Will terrorism, massacre, fights stop after that? Probably NO.

Afghan tribal lords will try to retain control over their territory. This may keep Taliban engaged for some more time.

Will Taliban attack Pakistan, if Taliban removes all their opponents? Answer is likely. Why?

They don't have any interest in Pakistan. All these terrorist organizations have one common. objective i.e. Ghazwa-e-Hind. Taliban will do it for this objective which Muslims couldn't fulfill in last ~1400 years! 

Who will be happy, if that happens? China will get readymade opportunity to put their forces west of India and closer to many east Asian countries.

If China does not take any interest in Afghanistan matters, which is very unlikely, then Taliban will be on our western border in next 6 months.

In short, Chinese or Taliban forces will be on our western border in next 6 months... I wish I am proven wrong

Satish Gundawar

8-Jul-21

I had written above on 8-Jul. Many were believing that Taliban would take over Afghanistan by December. But the inevitable has arrived much earlier than expected. It is just matter of time Afghanistan will be controlled by Taliban. 

Many people are criticizing USA for their withdrawal. I think US realized their mistakes and understood they can't change Afghanistan into a modern state. Therefore, it is better to get out as quick as possible. 

We Indian must know what is Taliban? Taliban means Student. Student of what? Student of Deobandi school of Islam. Where is Deoband? It is in UP, India. It means India has contributed directly to create this mess.

After American and NATO forces withdrawal, Afghans are actually killing Afghan. Will it stop post Taliban controls Kabul? Very unlikely! 

As written above, we should expect those events to happen. 

In short, our western border and Kashmir will see enemy even sooner than expected. China and Pakistan will accelerate that process. What would be India's response then?

15-Aug-21

Who is Correct in Sheikh Jarrah?

Dispute in Sheikh Jarrah actually resulted into war between Palestinians (of Gaza Strip) and Israeli forces in May-21. The court verdict, which was delayed due to tensions between Palestinians and Israeli settlers in West Bank, is about to come now. I will throw some statements. You need to draw your own conclusion.

1.       Israel was declared as independent country in 1948. West Bank was Jordanian territory till 1967.

2.       During Jordan’s rule in West Bank, Jordanian govt forcefully evacuated Jews from their properties and distributed those properties to Palestinians. But Jordanian govt never transferred property rights to Palestinians. Many Palestinians are living in such properties since 1950.

3.       Israel occupied West Bank during 6 Days War with Arab countries in 1967. Israel has not officially annexed West Bank into their territory unlike Golan Heights. But Israel had military rule on West Bank since then.

4.       Jordan stripped off Jordanian citizenship of Palestinians in 1988. Since then, Israel established semi-civil authority on entire West Bank. Palestinian Authority is a different subject.

5.       Israeli parliament passed a law that Jews can claim their properties in West Bank which was taken away by Jordan in 1950.

6.       Jews filed many cases in Israeli courts claiming such properties back. Properties in Sheikh Jarrah are few of them. Many Jews have already won similar cases in other parts of West Bank.

7.       Jews who are claiming these properties have documentary evidence that these properties belong to them. But the current Palestinians occupants of these properties do not any proof that Jordanian govt has transferred property rights to them.

8.       West Bank is occupied territory for UN and many countries (Including India) recognize that.

9.       Can Israel impose their rules on occupied territory? As per UN resolution, international laws are applicable in occupied territory. But Israel has passed the law that West Bank will have Israeli court’s jurisdiction.

10.   Palestinians of West Bank says that it is occupied territory and hence Israeli court does not have any jurisdiction over West Bank. International laws should prevail here.

Finally, who should get these properties you think?

1.       People who owned them till 1950 and was taken over forcefully by Jordan. But property ownership never transferred to Palestinians by Jordan.

Or

2.       Palestinians who are living in these properties given by Jordanian govt in 1950 but they do not have any proof of ownership.

Whether law should prevail or Humanitarianism? Who is correct in Sheikh Jarrah Israeli courts or Palestinian people?

 

Satish Gundawar

4-Aug-2021