Simmering Islamic World

When India was celebrating her 74^th independence day, superstar Amir Khan was busy in meeting with first lady of Turkey Emine Erdogan. Netizen reacted as expected because Amir Khan choose to stay away from meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu when he was visiting Mumbai in 2018. But when I saw photo of Amir Khan with Emine Erdogan, I thought, does it connect with various events happening in Islamic world since last few months?

In the beginning of July-20, Turkish top courts reverted Hagia Sophia from museum to mosque. It was converted into museum by democratic Turkish parliament in 1934. History of Hagia Sophia is not a topic of this blog. But it is a significant event as it shows the intentions of Islamic Turkey under Erdogan. Democratic and secular country is now slowly moving towards political Islamism.

In first week of Aug-20, Saudi Arabia did not extend the agreement with Pakistan of deferred payment on oil supplies and forced them to return $1 Billion immediately. Pakistan had to take loan from China and return Saudi’s $1 Billion. Similar action was taken by UAE. But it did not catch headlines in newspaper. UAE also withdrew their assistance to Pakistan in the deferred oil supply payment.

But Pakistan’s reaction to Saudi’s action was little amusing. On 5^th of Aug-20, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi threatened OIC (Organization of Islamic Cooperation) that Pakistan will arrange a separate Foreign Minister’s conference of Islamic countries, if OIC does not arrange a conference to reject/boycott India’s action of abrogation of article 370 and 35A in Kashmir. This statement did not go well with Saudi monarchy. Pakistan’s General Qamar Bajwa and ISI Chief had to visit Saudi Arabia in the beginning of this week to ease out the strained relations with Saudis. Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman (popularly known as MBS) had earlier refused to meet General Bajwa and ISI chief during this visit and sent his younger brother to meet them. When General Bajwa and ISI chief were meeting with younger brother of MBS, FM Qureshi was meeting with Saudi’s arch rival Qatar’s ambassador in Islamabad. It is difficult to comprehend why Qureshi is acting like this and on who’s behest?

We need to go little in the past to find out where Saudi and Pakistan’s relations started going south. Pakistan refused to provide military support to Saudi Arabia and UAE in their war against Yemen in 2015. Sushma Swaraj attended OIC in March-19 as ‘Guest of Honor’ and addressed the gathering. Pakistan opposed it vociferously but OIC didn’t give any heed to Pakistan. Pakistan boycotted the OIC meet. UAE gave their highest civilian award “Order of Zayed” to Narendra Modi, Indian Prime Minister, in Aug-19. Pakistan reacted strongly against this.

In Dec-19, many Islamic countries including Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Indonesia met in Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia. Most of the Arabic countries did not attend except Saudi’s arch rival Qatar. Head of the states of Turkey, Iran, Qatar, Indonesia, Malaysia attended this meet. Imran Khan decided to attend it but did not attend on the last moment after pressure from Saudi Arabia.

On 13-Aug-20, Trump declared historic agreement between Israel and UAE. Although, UAE is not the first Islamic and Arabic country (Egypt established diplomatic relations with Israel in 1979 and Jordan in 1994) who has established diplomatic relations with Israel. But it is significant as it can’t happen without blessings from Saudi Arabia. India also took very significant position and welcomed this agreement.  All these events (and many more) are hinting many things especially what is simmering in Islamic world in the last few years. Muslim’s most holy cities Mecca and Medina are located in Saudi Arabia. Naturally, SA has been garnering huge respect in Islamic world using their petrodollar power. OIC has been largely controlled by Saudi Arabia past so many decades and enjoyed control over Islamic world. But lately their influence is waning.

Iran’s expansionism was very much in check until Iraq was a strong nation. Fall of Iraq became a huge opportunity for Iran to propel their ambition of Shia expansionism. Today, Iran is playing a major role openly or secretly in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Iran’s proxies are fighting with SA and UAE forces in Yemen for the last few years.

There is strong wave of neo-Ottomanism in Turkey under the leadership of Erdogan. Ottoman empire which was established in 1299 lasted till 1923 until it was completely demolished in World War 1. The geographic area of Ottoman empire was spread across parts of Europe, Middle East, and north of Africa. This mighty empire ruled over 600 years and became the longest ruling dynasty. The Sharif of Mecca used to rule the holy city of Mecca under the rule of Sultan of Ottoman. This mighty empire broken into pieces just 100 years back. Many Turks now believe that Erdogan can fulfill their dreams of regaining the glory of Ottoman empire. One can see that Erdogan’s recent actions arise from that desire.

The feud between Shia Iran and Sunni Arab is historical and centuries old. Their reconciliation is almost impossible. Now with the emergence of Shia Iranian camp, Saudi sees a challenge to their unilateral control over Islamic world. Emergence of neo-Ottomanism under Erdogan has fueled that fear further more. Monarchies in Middle East are threatened by movements like Muslim brotherhood. This is the precise reason why Saudi Arabia, UAE etc.  severed relationship with Qatar. They feel that Qatar is financing Muslim Brotherhood movement. Muslim Brotherhood which overthrew many Islamic governments in recent history is product of political Islamism primarily patronized by Turkey, Egypt. The Islamic world began to polarize under political Islamism and Islamic monarchy.

In summary, Islamic world which was largely under the control of Saudi Arabia until recently now sees 3 distinct camps. Camp 1 of Monarchies of Middle East under the leadership of Saudi Arabia. They are trying to keep countries of OIC with them. Iran has created Camp 2 with countries like Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen. Turkey is trying to create Camp 3 primarily with Sunni Islamic countries. The enemy’s enemy is a friend. Therefore, Iran, Qatar and Turkey are joining hands together and collaborating with Malaysia and Indonesia to counter the leadership of Saudi Arabia. The Kuala Lumpur summit, in Dec-19, was direct attack on Saudi’s leadership. The picture of Camp 3 is just emerging. It is difficult to predict whether Malaysia and Indonesia will join in Camp 3 or not or they will remain nonaligned as they have been in the past.

Pakistan sees a very pivotal role in these camps as it is only a nuclear armed Islamic nation and a strategic location it has. Pakistan will keep away from Shia Iranian Camp. But Sunni SA and Turkey will both want to get Pakistan into their camp. Remember, Turkey and Iran had issued a statement against abrogation of article 370 and 35A. One of the common behavior within Islamic countries is that they show a lot of brotherhood (Muslim Ummah) outwardly. But they have deep mistrust and acute contempt for each other. Pakistan will continue to support Saudi Arabia as long as SA grease Pakistan’s hand with handsome alms. Action or no action on Shah Mehmood Qureshi, FM of Pakistan, will indicate where Pakistan is leading towards camp 1 or camp 3.

Monarchies in Middle East want to keep their control over their territories and they see Camp 2 and Camp 3 as a major threat to their existence. They see Muslim Brotherhood movement is a major threat to their monarchy. Which are those countries who can protect them from these potential threats? It is only US and its close ally Israel. It is expected that Oman, Bahrain, Morocco to follow suit and establish diplomatic relationship with Israel very soon. Saudi will wait for success of this pilot. But they will eventually follow UAE and establish relationship with Israel in the near future.

But how do the Muslims of Indian subcontinent see towards Turkey? History tells us that all Muslim empires in the Indian subcontinent have always paid their reverence and got approval from Ottoman empire. Therefore, Muslims in Indian subcontinents have big respect towards current day Turkey. Indian Muslims were front runner when Pasha decided to abrogate post of Calipha and started Khilafat movement in 1919 in undivided India. Who were the leaders of the Khilafat movement? Where are their families now? India’s first Human Resources Minister (HRD) Maulana Abdul Kalam Azad was also the President of All India Khilafat Movement for some time. Maulana Abdul Kalam Azad is great grand uncle of superstar Amir Khan. When Erdogan is trying to carve out space for himself in the Islamic world, an invitation to great grandson of the leader of the Khilafat movement to his palace is a good opportunity. I see Amir Khan’s photo with Emine Erdogan as a small effort towards larger expansionism of Turkey in India. Is it the beginning of revival of the Khilafat movement and influence of Turkey in India?

 

Satish Gundawar

21-Aug-2020