वक्त वक्त की बात

https://youtu.be/Cm2MqoCvTw8

हे १९६५ चे गाणे म्हणजे अर्धे शतक जुने! संगीतकार रवी ह्यांच्या प्रकृतीच्या अगदीच भिन्न. हे गाणे पण तसेच म्हणजे गाण्याचे कोणते अंग बघायचे?

Prelude ची सुरवात trumpet आणि rhythm guitar ने केली आहे. २० सेकंदानी rhythm guitar आणि lead guitar ची मेलोडी. त्यानंतर येतो आशाताईंचा रेशमी आवाज जो गाण्याचा प्राण आहे.

गाण्यात लांब लांब तीन interludes आहेत. तिन्ही interludes एकमेकांपासून पुर्णपणे भिन्न. पहील्या interlude ची सुरुवात violine च्या दोन group ची counter melody ने सोबत lead guitar आणि mandolin ने शेवट. दुसरे interlude तब्बल ५५ सेकंदांचे! हे interlude गाण्याचे धृवपदच आहे. सुरुवात सुंदर saxophone ने नंतर mandolin आणि accordion ची जुगलबंदी आणि नंतर violine ने शेवट. तिसरे interlude saxophone, mandolin आणि गायिकेच्या आवाजाचे मिश्रण.

तब्बल ८ मिनिटाचे गाणे string section, brass section आणि wind section पुरेपूर. गाण्यात कोणतेही ताल वाद्य नाही. Rhythm साठी फक्त rhythm guitar चा उपयोग. 

गाणे राग पहाडीवर आधारित आहे म्हणतात जे ह्या कानसेनाला कळण्याइतके ज्ञान नाही. पण western orchestration वर भारतीय गाणे म्हणजे fusion चे उत्तम उदाहरण. 

आणि आता ४० वर्षांनंतरचे हे गाणे ऐका आणि सांगा.

https://youtu.be/-6Y8hMyEoV8

😁😁😁

Burning Sahel

What comes in our mind when someone asks us countries which are affected by terrorism? Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan correct? What comes in our mind when someone asks us about terrorist organization? Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Taliban, Hamas right? We think of India, Israel when someone talks about countries who are fighting cross border terrorism. But we hardly think of Sahel, region of Africa, which is also badly affected by terrorism and civil war. This may be because this region is extremely poor, has less business potential, marginal diplomatic relations. Or many may think that black people not worth of human rights. Or it is far away from India and hence unrest in Sahel does not affect us. Someone may say that not aware of something like this happening in Sahel as media does not give any coverage. Believe me we are not the only one. The whole world is ignoring Sahel as they hardly have any economic interests in Sahel region.

Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, and Eritrea are part of Sahel region of Africa. If you look at the map, there are other countries such Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Morocco, Congo who are also facing terrorism or civil war.

·         Mauritania is ~100% Sunni Muslim country. It has single party government and history of military coup. Mauritania is victim of cross border terrorism due Islamic insurgency in Algeria since 2005. Terrorist organizations from Mali are also attacking Mauritania.

·         Mali’s economy is based on gold. It has 90% Sunni Muslims and 5% Christians population. Mali has single party pro socialist government. Islamic jihad started in northern part of Mali (Azawad) which is closer to Algeria. Algerian terrorist organization instigated northern people to overthrow socialist govt and establish Sharia law in Mali. The fight between govt forces and terrorist organization started in 2012 and still going on.

·         Burkina Faso: Extremely poor country with 63% Muslims and 23% Christians. It has Marxist leaning socialist government mostly governed by Christians. North of Burkina Faso which has border with Mali and Niger has extreme issue of cross border terrorism. Burkina Faso does not have resources, and courage to fight back. Terrorist attacks started in 2015 and still going on.

·         Niger’s economy is based on oil with 99% Muslims. Niger has checkered history of one party socialist govt and military coup. Niger is victim of cross boarder terrorism. All countries surrounding Niger are affected by Islamic terrorism. Terrorist organizations from Nigeria, Mali, Libya and Algeria use Niger as transit and safe location. Niger does not have means and resources to counter this.

·         Nigeria’s economy is based on oil with 56% Muslim (mostly in North) and 44% Christians (Mostly in South). Nigeria is multi party federal republic. Nigeria had both Christian and Muslim President till now. However, wealth is concentrated mostly with Christian. Notorious Boko Haram is from Nigeria. Northern Nigeria has Sharia law implemented and Boko Haram now wants to implement it throughout Nigeria. Islamist jihad of Boko Haram started in 2012 and still going on killing and displacing thousands of people in Nigeria and surrounding countries.

·         Chad’s economy is based on oil. It has 52% Muslims (mostly in North) and 44% Christians (Mostly in South) population. It has multi party Presidential system. The Presidents have been elected from both Christian and Muslim. However, it has been ruled by Idriss Deby since 1990 till 2021. The civil war between northern Muslims and southern Christians is going on since its independence in 1960. Northern Muslim has constant support from Libya and Sudan in Civil war.

·         The partition of Sudan happened in 2011 due to politics of oil and religion. Northern part is still called as Sudan and has 97% Muslim population. The southern part is called as South Sudan with 65% Christian and 6% Muslim population. The partition of Sudan is result of civil war between Muslims (North) and Christian (South). Sudan is an independent subject in itself. Insurgency, terrorism, fight between Sudan and South Sudan is still going on.

·         Eritrea is completely different than rest of Sahel countries. It has long history war with Ethiopia. Both Eritrea (63% Christian and 37% Muslim) and Ethiopia (63% Christian and 34% Muslim) are Christian majority countries. Ethiopia is one of the largest landlock country. Eritrea would have given them long coastal line. Eritrea was Italian colony till 1941. British took over Eritrea and kept under their administration until 1951. British and American gave this territory to Ethiopia as a reward for Ethiopia’s support during WWII. The civil war between Eritrea and Ethiopia broke in 1961 and continued till 1991. It can be called as communists gorilla war as Communist countries actively supported Eritrean in this war. Eritrea became an independent country in 1993. Understandably it has leftist, socialist one party system with Isaias Afwerki as its president since 1993. No elections held since 1993. Interestingly, Eritrea supported Ethiopia in Tigray war in 2020-21.

·         Senegal is the only country which could protect themselves from cross border terrorism and civil war. It has 94% Muslim and 4% Christian and is multi party secular state. Casamance region of Senegal is Christian majority and had given trouble to Senegal in past.

Other countries in the region such as Algeria, Congo, Morocco have similar story of cross border terrorism and civil war. There are some observations in Sahel.

·         Most of the conflicts, cross border terrorism and civil war started after 2011 when Arab Spring started in Africa and West Asia. Arab Spring movement in Egypt and Libya and civil war in Algeria are major contributors in unrest in Sahel.

·         5 countries (Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Eritrea) out of 9 are/had communist regime. Remaining 2 countries (Chad, Nigeria) have multi party presidential system. These communist countries were relatively peaceful until Arab Spring in 2011 and Colonel Gaddafi was running socialist government in Libya.

·         In short, Islamic terrorism is fighting against leftist/communist rule in Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger (and in Algeria) to establish Islamic State (Sharia rule). Indian communist should note this.

·         ISIS and Al-Qaeda started losing their control over Iraq, Syria and Libya after initial success. These groups have started moving towards Sahel region. Most of the terrorist organization are local but proudly declare their allegiance with ISIS and Al-Qaeda.

·         Military of these countries is very small, poorly equipped, lack of modern training and motivation. Since Sahel was prominently France colony. France takes more interest in counter terrorism efforts in Sahel. US, British, Italians or UN forces have some presence.

Now five countries viz. Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger (communist regime) and Chad  have joined their hands together to counter cross border terrorism of Sahel (G5 Sahel). France is actively supporting them in training, equipment etc. But peaceful Sahel and north Africa is a distant dream.  

 

Satish Gundawar

5-Sept-21

Will USA’s Wisdom Prevail?

I had written a blog “Anarchy of Democracy” in Jan-21 and written that US President Mr. Ronald Reagan made a historical speech in the British Parliament on 8-Jun-1982. He said “We must take action to assist the campaign for democracy. Foster the infrastructure of democracy, system of free press, union, political parties, universities”. US was doing exactly same in Afghanistan since 2001! All Human Development Index viz. Life Expectancy, Women Education, GDP, Per Capita income, Electricity to Citizen and internet penetration increased multifold during US experiment of democracy in Afghanistan. But who is USA to impose democracy on Afghanistan? Was Ashraf Ghani’s govt popular, whether Afghans wanted Ghani’s govt or Taliban’s govt? We need to ask these questions. After, Americans ran away from Bagram airbase on 2-July, Taliban started their campaign aggressively and captured entire Afghanistan in 45 days! They did not face major resistance. Afghans welcomed them at many places, Afghan govt forces deserted and joined them. This indicates that large number of Afghans wanted Taliban govt and they have it now. USA spent over 3 Trillion Dollars for experiment of democracy which has gone to drain now. President Trump realized that Pakistan is milking them. The cost of Afghan war will impact on American economy very soon. He took wise decision and declared that US Military will be withdrawn by 11-Sep-21. Will newly found US wisdom prevail in other parts of the World? USA’s NGOs (and social media platforms) are directly responsible for instigating Arab Spring in 11 countries in 2011. Civil war is still going on in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq etc. Let’s see what is happening there now.

·         Libya is homogenous with respect to race, ethnicity, and religion. 97% Libyans are Sunni Arab. Therefore, it is easier to resolve and stop the civil war. Libya is now controlled by three groups. Government of National Accord (GNA) based out of Tripoli. Libyan Nation Army (LNA) and House of Representative (HOR) based out of Tobruk. Southern Libya is controlled by Al-Qaeda, ISIS. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are already marginalized in Libya. The major fight is between GNA and LNA/HOR. GNA is UN recognized government whereas LNA is headed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. USA says that they do not have any presence or intervention or interest or role in Libya. But Khalifa Haftar is US citizen and his family still lives in USA. Saudi Arabia, UAE are supporting Khalifa Haftar and are close allies of USA. If USA instructs Saudi, UAE and Egypt to stop supporting Khalifa Haftar, civil war will stop very soon. Let Libyans decide their own fate.

·         Syria is complex country as it has different races, ethnicities and religions. Sunni majority country is governed by Alawite (Shia) minority. Four distinct groups are fighting with each other. Syrian Govt forces, National Defense Forces of Syrian Christians and Shabiha (Alawite Shia) private army is Alawite Shia camp. Free Syrian army (FSA), defected Sunni soldiers of Syrian army is second camp. Terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra, ISIS is third camp. Ethnic Kurds has Syrian Democratic Front (SDF). They have formed independent state Rojava in Northern Syria in 2013. All these 4 camps have fought with each other. US government is supporting FSA and Kurds with arms, ammunitions and training. US Army directly attacked Syrian govt forces (Alawite camp) in 2017. In mid-2018, Trump has announced that they want to remove Dr. Bashar Al Assad’s govt. However, Trump administration suddenly announced withdrawal from Syria in 2019. But they never evacuated completely. They are still there. Although they completely abandoned Kurds, they are still actively supporting FSA.  Currently they have over 1000 soldiers in Syria. If USA completely withdraws from Syria, the civil war may not stop completely. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iran and Russia would be still active in Syria. Let’s hope Biden withdraws completely from Syria and forces Saudi Arabia and Qatar to stop supporting FSA. Iran and Russia support Assad’s regime. They would jointly handle Turkey properly.

·         Iraq is also equally complex as it has different races, ethnicities and religions. Sunni majority in eastern Iraq, Shia majority in southern and western side and Kurd majority in north of Iraq. Shia majority country was ruled by Saddam Hussein (Sunni Muslim) for long time. American army invaded Iraq in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein. US banned ruling Baath party and disbanded military after collapse of Saddam’s regime. The political power balance shifted from Sunni to Shia. It fueled civil war, political instability, widespread corruption and sectarian conflicts. The sectarian conflict is mainly between Govt forces (primarily Shia), ISIS (Sunni terrorist groups) and Kurd forces (Peshmerga). Major US forces were withdrawn in 2010-11 after establishment of democratic Iraqi government. But rise of ISIS triggered international intervention (The Global Coalition) led by US including NATO forces, European Union and Arab League in 2014. Iraqi govt forces, Global Coalition and Peshmerga fought together to defeat ISIS and Al-Qaeda. They were defeated in 2017. Approximately half a million Iraqi are killed in civil war since 2003. Today Iraq has democratically elected govt comprises of all sectarian groups but dominated by Shia. This is peculiar country where US and Iran are supporting Shia govt. But today Iraq has become power struggle ground for Iran and USA. Now President Biden announced withdrawal by this year end and will not participate in combat operations.

Libya, Syria and Iraq were governed by mix of socialist and communist dictators for long. Although citizen’s liberty was curtailed by these dictators, all of them had very good human development index in education, healthcare, women freedom, per capita income etc. There is one common observation in these three countries. When US and NATO forces attacked on them, they destroyed their oil/petroleum infrastructure, roads, airports etc. One wonder why did they do that? One more common observation. One section of society invited, welcomed foreign forces to overthrow existing regime. They did not get any benefits, but they helped in destroying their own country. Now they are repenting.  

USA had played a game of democracy in many countries like Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, (other countries where US instigated Arab Spring), Afghanistan, Sudan and Latin American countries such as Cuba and Columbia. They miserably failed everywhere. Their intervention did not bring in true democracy. On the contrary, these countries went into civil war, infrastructure is destroyed completely, high unemployment, high child mortality, reduction in literacy rate, very high inflation, people become poorer.

USA should stop following President Regan’s dream of democracy. They should realize that democracy is just not way of governance, but it is way of life. Every race, ethnicity, religion, culture is not compatible with democracy. There are many prerequisite and conditions before a nation adopts democracy. The wisdom they showed in Afghanistan should prevail in Libya, Syria and Iraq and withdraw honorably at the earliest.

Satish Gundawar

18-Aug-21

Watch these international events carefully

1. Mass graves found in Catholic school in Canada. Approximately 800 unmarked graves of children have found. Native Canadians have burnt 8 churches till now as a reaction of it. Vatican has refused to apologize for this.

2. MBS has refused to recognize Hadith (few) as religious text as they were written after 250 years from dealth of prophet.

3. Israel open their embassy in Abu Dhabi.

4. Tigray genocide in Ethiopia by Nobel laurel (for peace) PM Abiy Ahmed.

5. Regime change in Israel and Iran. Both have extreme religious leader as head of the state.

6. American started withdrawal from Afghanistan. They vacated their main airbase from Bagram.

Last but not least 😜

7. Donald Trump is back 😃

Satish Gundawar 

3-Jul-21

Who is Controlling USA Today?

I am in dilemma while writing this. Because we Indians deeply believe in "सर्वे संतू निरामया". Therefore, I am nervous while writing on someone's health. But when it comes to health of US President, then it impacts entire world.

I was very surprised when Americans elected Joe Biden as their president. They generally select smart, good looking, young, good orator as their President. But Joe Biden is 78 years old. He is the oldest President in the history of US. He made lot of funny mistakes during his presidential campaign. But he was finally elected.

His health condition has come to forefront in US media once again. One video was viral in March. Biden fell down three times while climbing Air Force One.

Ronny Jackson, former Whitehouse physician and senator is insisting that President must go through Cognitive test.

Donald Trump is already talking about mid term polls.

Let's hope that President Biden is in good health and he will deliver the best as world leader. He has started JCPOA which was stopped by Trump. He accelerated American forces withdrawal from Afghanistan. He had fruitful summit with Putin. He also accelerated vaccination program in US. He got appreciation from none other than Putin. All these events do indicate that he is very much in control.

But, if this rumor has iota of truth, then who is controlling USA? President Kamala Harris? That is what he called her in one of his public speech 😜

Satish Gundawar

9-Jul-21

Is Taliban threat to India?

Will Taliban reach our western border? If likely, then when?

Will Taliban attack on their friend Pakistan? Possibly, then when?

Will curse on Afghanistan be over after Taliban takes over control? Last 40 years, they have some foreign forces or other on their land. 

These are some of the questions come to mind when Americans started evaluation from Afghanistan.

Why is it morale booster for Taliban?

The way US forces left Bagram airbase on last Friday 2-July is very shameful. They ran away taking their heavy arms and ammunition in dark. They didn't even inform their new commander and Afghanistan authorities. They put off electricity and just ran away!

Taliban has already captured 30% of Afghanistan. Afghan govt forces are deserting and crossing over border or surrendering to Taliban.

The target date of evacuation for NATO forces is Sept 11. But it is likely that they will even runaway before that.

Taliban will takeover Afghanistan in next 2 months. Who is laughing? China, Pakistan, Russia? 

Will terrorism, massacre, fights stop after that? Probably NO.

Afghan tribal lords will try to retain control over their territory. This may keep Taliban engaged for some more time.

Will Taliban attack Pakistan, if Taliban removes all their opponents? Answer is likely. Why?

They don't have any interest in Pakistan. All these terrorist organizations have one common. objective i.e. Ghazwa-e-Hind. Taliban will do it for this objective which Muslims couldn't fulfill in last ~1400 years! 

Who will be happy, if that happens? China will get readymade opportunity to put their forces west of India and closer to many east Asian countries.

If China does not take any interest in Afghanistan matters, which is very unlikely, then Taliban will be on our western border in next 6 months.

In short, Chinese or Taliban forces will be on our western border in next 6 months... I wish I am proven wrong

Satish Gundawar

8-Jul-21

I had written above on 8-Jul. Many were believing that Taliban would take over Afghanistan by December. But the inevitable has arrived much earlier than expected. It is just matter of time Afghanistan will be controlled by Taliban. 

Many people are criticizing USA for their withdrawal. I think US realized their mistakes and understood they can't change Afghanistan into a modern state. Therefore, it is better to get out as quick as possible. 

We Indian must know what is Taliban? Taliban means Student. Student of what? Student of Deobandi school of Islam. Where is Deoband? It is in UP, India. It means India has contributed directly to create this mess.

After American and NATO forces withdrawal, Afghans are actually killing Afghan. Will it stop post Taliban controls Kabul? Very unlikely! 

As written above, we should expect those events to happen. 

In short, our western border and Kashmir will see enemy even sooner than expected. China and Pakistan will accelerate that process. What would be India's response then?

15-Aug-21

Who is Correct in Sheikh Jarrah?

Dispute in Sheikh Jarrah actually resulted into war between Palestinians (of Gaza Strip) and Israeli forces in May-21. The court verdict, which was delayed due to tensions between Palestinians and Israeli settlers in West Bank, is about to come now. I will throw some statements. You need to draw your own conclusion.

1.       Israel was declared as independent country in 1948. West Bank was Jordanian territory till 1967.

2.       During Jordan’s rule in West Bank, Jordanian govt forcefully evacuated Jews from their properties and distributed those properties to Palestinians. But Jordanian govt never transferred property rights to Palestinians. Many Palestinians are living in such properties since 1950.

3.       Israel occupied West Bank during 6 Days War with Arab countries in 1967. Israel has not officially annexed West Bank into their territory unlike Golan Heights. But Israel had military rule on West Bank since then.

4.       Jordan stripped off Jordanian citizenship of Palestinians in 1988. Since then, Israel established semi-civil authority on entire West Bank. Palestinian Authority is a different subject.

5.       Israeli parliament passed a law that Jews can claim their properties in West Bank which was taken away by Jordan in 1950.

6.       Jews filed many cases in Israeli courts claiming such properties back. Properties in Sheikh Jarrah are few of them. Many Jews have already won similar cases in other parts of West Bank.

7.       Jews who are claiming these properties have documentary evidence that these properties belong to them. But the current Palestinians occupants of these properties do not any proof that Jordanian govt has transferred property rights to them.

8.       West Bank is occupied territory for UN and many countries (Including India) recognize that.

9.       Can Israel impose their rules on occupied territory? As per UN resolution, international laws are applicable in occupied territory. But Israel has passed the law that West Bank will have Israeli court’s jurisdiction.

10.   Palestinians of West Bank says that it is occupied territory and hence Israeli court does not have any jurisdiction over West Bank. International laws should prevail here.

Finally, who should get these properties you think?

1.       People who owned them till 1950 and was taken over forcefully by Jordan. But property ownership never transferred to Palestinians by Jordan.

Or

2.       Palestinians who are living in these properties given by Jordanian govt in 1950 but they do not have any proof of ownership.

Whether law should prevail or Humanitarianism? Who is correct in Sheikh Jarrah Israeli courts or Palestinian people?

 

Satish Gundawar

4-Aug-2021