Will USA’s Wisdom Prevail?

I had written a blog “Anarchy of Democracy” in Jan-21 and written that US President Mr. Ronald Reagan made a historical speech in the British Parliament on 8-Jun-1982. He said “We must take action to assist the campaign for democracy. Foster the infrastructure of democracy, system of free press, union, political parties, universities”. US was doing exactly same in Afghanistan since 2001! All Human Development Index viz. Life Expectancy, Women Education, GDP, Per Capita income, Electricity to Citizen and internet penetration increased multifold during US experiment of democracy in Afghanistan. But who is USA to impose democracy on Afghanistan? Was Ashraf Ghani’s govt popular, whether Afghans wanted Ghani’s govt or Taliban’s govt? We need to ask these questions. After, Americans ran away from Bagram airbase on 2-July, Taliban started their campaign aggressively and captured entire Afghanistan in 45 days! They did not face major resistance. Afghans welcomed them at many places, Afghan govt forces deserted and joined them. This indicates that large number of Afghans wanted Taliban govt and they have it now. USA spent over 3 Trillion Dollars for experiment of democracy which has gone to drain now. President Trump realized that Pakistan is milking them. The cost of Afghan war will impact on American economy very soon. He took wise decision and declared that US Military will be withdrawn by 11-Sep-21. Will newly found US wisdom prevail in other parts of the World? USA’s NGOs (and social media platforms) are directly responsible for instigating Arab Spring in 11 countries in 2011. Civil war is still going on in Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iraq etc. Let’s see what is happening there now.

·         Libya is homogenous with respect to race, ethnicity, and religion. 97% Libyans are Sunni Arab. Therefore, it is easier to resolve and stop the civil war. Libya is now controlled by three groups. Government of National Accord (GNA) based out of Tripoli. Libyan Nation Army (LNA) and House of Representative (HOR) based out of Tobruk. Southern Libya is controlled by Al-Qaeda, ISIS. Al-Qaeda and ISIS are already marginalized in Libya. The major fight is between GNA and LNA/HOR. GNA is UN recognized government whereas LNA is headed by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar. USA says that they do not have any presence or intervention or interest or role in Libya. But Khalifa Haftar is US citizen and his family still lives in USA. Saudi Arabia, UAE are supporting Khalifa Haftar and are close allies of USA. If USA instructs Saudi, UAE and Egypt to stop supporting Khalifa Haftar, civil war will stop very soon. Let Libyans decide their own fate.

·         Syria is complex country as it has different races, ethnicities and religions. Sunni majority country is governed by Alawite (Shia) minority. Four distinct groups are fighting with each other. Syrian Govt forces, National Defense Forces of Syrian Christians and Shabiha (Alawite Shia) private army is Alawite Shia camp. Free Syrian army (FSA), defected Sunni soldiers of Syrian army is second camp. Terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra, ISIS is third camp. Ethnic Kurds has Syrian Democratic Front (SDF). They have formed independent state Rojava in Northern Syria in 2013. All these 4 camps have fought with each other. US government is supporting FSA and Kurds with arms, ammunitions and training. US Army directly attacked Syrian govt forces (Alawite camp) in 2017. In mid-2018, Trump has announced that they want to remove Dr. Bashar Al Assad’s govt. However, Trump administration suddenly announced withdrawal from Syria in 2019. But they never evacuated completely. They are still there. Although they completely abandoned Kurds, they are still actively supporting FSA.  Currently they have over 1000 soldiers in Syria. If USA completely withdraws from Syria, the civil war may not stop completely. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, Iran and Russia would be still active in Syria. Let’s hope Biden withdraws completely from Syria and forces Saudi Arabia and Qatar to stop supporting FSA. Iran and Russia support Assad’s regime. They would jointly handle Turkey properly.

·         Iraq is also equally complex as it has different races, ethnicities and religions. Sunni majority in eastern Iraq, Shia majority in southern and western side and Kurd majority in north of Iraq. Shia majority country was ruled by Saddam Hussein (Sunni Muslim) for long time. American army invaded Iraq in 2003 to remove Saddam Hussein. US banned ruling Baath party and disbanded military after collapse of Saddam’s regime. The political power balance shifted from Sunni to Shia. It fueled civil war, political instability, widespread corruption and sectarian conflicts. The sectarian conflict is mainly between Govt forces (primarily Shia), ISIS (Sunni terrorist groups) and Kurd forces (Peshmerga). Major US forces were withdrawn in 2010-11 after establishment of democratic Iraqi government. But rise of ISIS triggered international intervention (The Global Coalition) led by US including NATO forces, European Union and Arab League in 2014. Iraqi govt forces, Global Coalition and Peshmerga fought together to defeat ISIS and Al-Qaeda. They were defeated in 2017. Approximately half a million Iraqi are killed in civil war since 2003. Today Iraq has democratically elected govt comprises of all sectarian groups but dominated by Shia. This is peculiar country where US and Iran are supporting Shia govt. But today Iraq has become power struggle ground for Iran and USA. Now President Biden announced withdrawal by this year end and will not participate in combat operations.

Libya, Syria and Iraq were governed by mix of socialist and communist dictators for long. Although citizen’s liberty was curtailed by these dictators, all of them had very good human development index in education, healthcare, women freedom, per capita income etc. There is one common observation in these three countries. When US and NATO forces attacked on them, they destroyed their oil/petroleum infrastructure, roads, airports etc. One wonder why did they do that? One more common observation. One section of society invited, welcomed foreign forces to overthrow existing regime. They did not get any benefits, but they helped in destroying their own country. Now they are repenting.  

USA had played a game of democracy in many countries like Vietnam, Iraq, Syria, Libya, (other countries where US instigated Arab Spring), Afghanistan, Sudan and Latin American countries such as Cuba and Columbia. They miserably failed everywhere. Their intervention did not bring in true democracy. On the contrary, these countries went into civil war, infrastructure is destroyed completely, high unemployment, high child mortality, reduction in literacy rate, very high inflation, people become poorer.

USA should stop following President Regan’s dream of democracy. They should realize that democracy is just not way of governance, but it is way of life. Every race, ethnicity, religion, culture is not compatible with democracy. There are many prerequisite and conditions before a nation adopts democracy. The wisdom they showed in Afghanistan should prevail in Libya, Syria and Iraq and withdraw honorably at the earliest.

Satish Gundawar

18-Aug-21