Golden Era of Indian Democracy

Disclaimer: I am BJP supporter and hence my analysis may be or may not be biased. Election Commission websites are not very much user friendly. Although, I wanted to take all the supporting data from EC website, but it is difficult to find. Therefore, I have taken the data from Wikipedia. There could be some errors in the data. However, it will not have major impact on my analysis.

The results of recently concluded Jharkhand assembly election gave Lutyens media and cabal of Congress party to start propaganda that magic of Modi and BJP is waning. It is warning to Modi/BJP. Opposition unity can defeat BJP/Modi etc. They did it when BJP lost Gorakhpur Loksabha by-election and few assembly by-elections in UP. They spread similar propaganda when BJP lost Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh state elections in 2018. Assembly elections of Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand have many similarities.

Assembly elections in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh were conducted just before 2019 General Election. All these 3 states faced anti-incumbency factor in state but not at the center. Voters gave very clear mandate in favor of Congress. But within few months, the same voters gave very clear mandate in favor of BJP in general election. Voters are now becoming wiser. They are voting differently in different elections. They do not mix national and state issues nor they give credit of central govt. achievement to their state units. Orissa is the best example.  

Congress could not open account in Rajasthan in general election in 2019 when they are in power in state. In past, Congress dismissed such govt. saying that state govt. has lost the confidence of people. But BJP wisely did not do the same.

Rajasthan		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	73	25
	% of Votes	38.8%	58.5%
Congress	# Seats	100	0
	% of Votes	39.3%	34.24%

BJP’s voter percentage is more than Congress in MP in assembly election. But Congress won more seats. But see the swing of votes from assembly election to general election. BJP got huge victory in general election. Congress govt. is going on with thin majority in MP. BJP can plan operation Kamala here as well but they are aware that people will reject it.

Madhya Pradesh		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	109	28
	% of Votes	41.0%	58%
Congress	# Seats	114	2
	% of Votes	40.9%	34.5%

Chhattisgarh votes severely punished BJP in assembly election but rewarded BJP handsomely in general election.

Chhattisgarh		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	15	9
	% of Votes	33%	50.7%
Congress	# Seats	68	2
	% of Votes	43%	40.91%

Karnataka election is little different. Although, Congress faced anti-incumbency but BJP did not get decisive mandate. But people wanted BJP’s govt. They corrected their mistake in recently concluded by-election. BJP won 12 of 14, Congress just 2 and JDS did not open the account. They did not punish imported candidates during by-election. But they punished Congress and JDS who formed the govt. against people’s mandate.  

Karnataka		Assembly (2018)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	104	17
	% of Votes	36.34%	51.4%
Congress	# Seats	80	9
	% of Votes	38.14%	31.88%

 Jharkhand is very interesting case. In fact, Congress and JMM got less percentage of votes in assembly election than general election. If BJP and AJSU’s (8.1%) vote percentage is added, they would have got more votes than Congress+ JMM alliance. Perhaps, voters punished both BJP and AJSU for not honoring alliance mantra. Voters once again showed dislike for changing loyalties.

Jharkhand		Assembly (2019)	General (2019)
BJP	# Seats	25	12
	% of Votes	33.37%	55.29%
Congress + JMM	# Seats	47	2
	% of Votes	35.35%	34.58%

 My few observations in last few assembly elections,

·         Voters give more importance to the local issues during assembly election. Modi magic does not always work.
·         Caste factor still pays important role in assembly elections which is fading away in general election.
·         Voters wants local candidate. They do not like candidate imported from outside.
·         They also do not accept imported candidate from other parties. Voters are severely punishing candidates who are changing loyalties.

One more very important point. Congress central leadership campaigned very little in these assembly elections. They allowed state level leaders to run the state election. Gandhi family hardly campaigned in these state elections. It yielded results for Congress. Whereas, BJP relied on their central leadership. Modi and Amit Shah remained star campaigner in these elections. That did not yield good results.

But lastly, voter’s wisdom is remarkable. They are going as per their combined judgment. They are giving very clear message to Congress and BJP. But it is up to them whether they want to listen or not. I salute voters for their wisdom and hence welcome the outcome of Jharkhand election whole heatedly. Indian voters are becoming mature day by day and it will definitely help our democracy. This is a good new for India!

Satish Gundawar
24-Dec-2019

 

विषवल्ली जातीभेदाची

कोण म्हणे ते होते मुक मोर्चे 

मी तर ऐकले कण्हणे मातृभूचे
माँ म्हणे केव्हा नांदतील हे सौख्यभरे
रामा म्हणे जेव्हा भूक मिटे तुझी रक्ताची 

कोणी लावला रंग जातीचा खैरलांजीला

ह्यांनीच लावला ना वेमुलाला रंग जातीचा
कोणी लावला रंग धर्माचा अखलाकला
आता हेच लावतायत रंग कोपर्डीला जातीचा

आता हेच ठाकतायत एकमेका विरुद्ध जाती

आता हेच तोडतायत माझी नाजूक कांती
सांगू कसे लेकरांनो रिपू आला उंबरठ्यावर
खुप झाली परदास्याची रात बघूद्या जरा वैभवाची पहाट 

आता खूप झाला जातीद्वेष लेकरांनो

आणा समरसता समते बरोबर
रामा म्हणे बघतोय वाट परशुरामाची
तोच संपवेल विषवल्ली ही जातीभेदाची   

 

                 सतीश गुंडावार (२६-सप्टें-१६)

A Brief Story of Gilgit-Baltistan

Narendra Modi took detour and referred Gilgit-Baltistan and Baluchistan subtly in his independence speech this year. Today, his statement has big importance because of India’s renewed foreign policy. Gilgit-Baltistan and Baluchistan are completely different issues as far as India is concerned and therefore, I will write them separately. Whatever I am writing here is available in public space. I am just collating them for simple understanding.

What India refers as POK (Pakistan Occupied Kashmir) and Pakistan refers as Azad Kashmir are completely different. When we say our state of Jammu and Kashmir, we refer to the following map. We are also aware that large part of our J&K has been occupied by Pakistan and China. When we refer to POK, we refer to Azad Kashmir (Pakistan’s term and not mine!) and Gilgit-Baltistan combined. The dark green area in this map is Gilgit-Baltistan and pale green is so called Azad Kashmir (POK).

Kashmir’s Hindu ruler Dogras annexed Gilgit-Baltistan in 1846 and ruled since then. They had given this region to British on lease for 60 years in 1935. This is very high altitude area. One can wonder the utility of this area to British. British administered Gilgit-Baltistan from Delhi. The region’s security responsibility was with Gilgit Scout which was managed by British. Before the partition of India, Lord Mountbatten cancelled the lease agreement on 1-Aug-1947 and returned this region to Raja Hari Singh. Maharaja appointed Brigadier Ghansar Singh as governor of this region and posted British officer Major W A Brown and Captain A S Mathieson of Gilgit Scout there.

After the partition of British India, princely states were given the choice of joining India or Pakistan. Raja Hari Singh requested India and Pakistan to sign standstill agreement till the time he takes the final decision on accession. All civil supplies to his states were coming from Pakistan. Therefore, he wanted to keep Pakistan satisfied. Pakistan signed the standstill agreement in Aug-47 but India requested some time to think over it.

Meanwhile, Pakistan started sending tribesmen from North-West region (Pathans), Afridis, and their regular soldiers in plain clothes in Kashmir. It created a huge law and order problem in Kashmir. Helpless Raja Hari Singh signed the instrument of accession on 26-Oct-1947 with India and sent it to Lord Mountbatten. Indian military landed on Srinagar airport on 27-Oct-1947 to fight Pakistan’s invasion. He also sent one letter along with it. Pakistan claims that Raja Hari Singh talks about accession as temporary arrangement until plebiscite is taken. But, I could not find any such reference in that letter. Moreover, Pakistan’s objection has been how Maharaja could sign an instrument of accession when standstill agreement with Pakistan was in place.

On 2-Nov-1947, Major Brown mutinied in Gilgit. He arrested Governor Ghansar Singh and raised the Pakistani flag at the capital of Gilgit. He informed to Lt Colonel Roger Bacon, in Lahore, the accession of Gilgit to Pakistan. Pakistani military immediately took over the control of the region and used it as a base to attack other parts of Jammu and Kashmir.

As I had written in my earlier blog that British wanted the partition of India more than Muslim League or Jinnah. Communist Russia’s influence was increasing in the region. Indian National Congress was coming closer to Communist Russia. Bacha Khan (Frontier Gandhi), Afghanistan, state of Kalat (Baluchistan) were coming under communist influence. British wanted a region in Indian subcontinent from where they could keep a watch on Soviet Union. Congress leaders refused this demand. But Jinnah accepted it and rest is the history of partition of India.

Gilgit-Baltistan was the critical area for this design. This may be the reason why British demanded this region on lease from Raja Hari Singh in 1935. If this region would have remained with India, Soviet Union (now Tajikistan) is just 25 KM away from India! See the map. Keeping Gilgit-Baltistan with India would have defeated the purpose of partition of India. All the British officers of Pakistan supported the coup of Major Brown. He was rewarded appropriately in 1948 for his services to King of England as “Most Exalted Order of the British Empire to Brown, Major (acting) William Alexander, Special List (ex-Indian Army)”.

Today, demography of both Gilgit-Baltistan and POK have undergone tremendous changes. Gilgit-Baltistan was once Shia majority area. Bhutto and subsequently General Zia infused Sunni Muslim in this region. Last few decades have seen ethnic cleansing of Shia by Sunnis and Pak military in this region. POK should be actually called as Pak Occupied Jammu (POJ). People from POJ are different from Kashmir and Punjabi speaking. They wanted to merge with greater Punjab. The region had 70% Muslim and 30% Hindus and Sikhs. The ethnic cleansing ensured no Hindu and Sikh in POJ today. Gilgit-Baltistan and POJ (POK) have not been recognized as Pakistani states in their Constitution till today. They do have some local government but they are Federally Administrated areas and managed by Ministry of Kashmir Affair. One of the reason Pakistan is not recognizing them as their states because they think that someday in future there would be plebiscite in whole of erstwhile Princely State of Jammu and Kashmir. They think that Sunni Muslims of these regions and our Kashmir will support accession to Pakistan. Day dream though!

Our position is very clear. Raja Hari Singh signed the unconditional instrument of accession on 26-Oct-1947 and therefore mutiny by Major Brown on 2-Nov-1947 is completely unlawful and unacceptable to us. The constitution of India recognizes POJ and Gilgit-Baltistan are integral part of India and therefore, Pakistan must return it back to us immediately!

 

***

Tragedy of 20th Century

Earlier, I promised that I would write on creation of Pakistan. The purpose of this blog is not to introduce few personalities who were responsible for creation of Pakistan but show the similarities among them. If we ask a simple question to any Indian that who created Pakistan, we get the simple answer Jinnah. But he was just a mask. I will give some pointers and leave it to the readers to make their own inferences.

Huseyn Suhrawardy was 5^th Prime Minister of Pakistan. He was born in Calcutta in 1892 and was a son of Calcutta High Court Justice. He was Oxford educated lawyer. He initially joined Swaraj Party of Chittaranjan Das and became the deputy mayor of Calcutta. He along with Das opposed the division of Bengal on the basis of religious. But then he joined Muslim League (ML) and became Chief Minister of Bengal in 1946. In 1946 election, ML could form only one coalition govt. in India in Bengal with the support of Schedule Caste Federation (SCF). In 1946, govt. of Sindh province was also of ML but it had a majority by only 1 member after assignation of CM of Congress. Therefore, he was the key person for a demand of Pakistan as he passed the resolution of Pakistan in Bengal assembly in 1946. His seat in Pakistan parliament was declared as vacant through a resolution as he was unsuccessful in obtaining the citizenship of Pakistan in 6 months! He had gone to Dhaka in June 1948, but was served with an expulsion notice within 24 hours of his arrival. He was not only expelled from East Pakistan but also prevented his re-entry for another six months. He was declared as “Traitor of Pakistan” and thrown out of country. He was recalled from exile and made fifth Prime Minister of Pakistan in 1956. He was PM approximately for 1 year and was forced to resign. He lived in Beirut in exile for rest of his life. Bhutto threatened him not to return to Pakistan. He died after 3 days in Beirut hotel in suspicious way in 1963.      

Muhammad Zafarullah Khan an Ahmadi Muslim, son of a lawyer and a lawyer himself. He studied in King’s College in London. He was elected to Punjab Legislative Council in 1926. Participated in round table conference in 1930 and 32 and became the railway minister in 1935. In 1939, he represented India in League of Nation. He was part of Executive Council of Viceroy of India. The Viceroy Lord Linlithgow requested him to draft a resolution of partition of India. Since he was Ahmadi, most of the Muslims would have reject his proposal, Viceroy handed over that proposal to Jinnah. Jinnah ensure that it was passed in ML’s Conference in Lahore in 1940. It is known as Pakistan Resolution. He was made a judge of Federal Court of India. Post partition, he was made the minister of Foreign Affairs. He held that position till 1957. Sunni Muslims called for his expulsion as he was Ahmadi. He was forced to resign in 1957. Although, he enjoyed decorative positions after that but mostly stayed out of Pakistan.

Today, Pakistan is the only country in the world where Ahmadis are non-Muslim by law. Ahmadis can’t call themselves Muslim or "pose as Muslims" which is punishable offence. Today, it is mandatory condition to say that one is not a follower of Mirza Gulam Ahmed (founder of Ahmedi) to get Pakistani passport. 

Ghulam Hussain Hidayatullah was Sunni Muslim and a lawyer from Sindh studied law in Mumbai. In 1921, he became a Member of Bombay Legislative Council. Sindh was then a part of Bombay state. He was a member of the Executive council of the Governor of Bombay from 1928 to 34. British govt. awarded him many titles. He represented Sindh in round table conference and convinced British to separate Sindh from Bombay state. They agreed to his demand and separated Sindh in 1937. He became the first Chief Minister of Sindh. In 1943, Sindh became the first Provincial Assembly to pass the resolution of Pakistan. Sufi person like G.M. Syed also supported this resolution. Hidayatullah became the governor of Sindh After partition. Syed was disappointed with formation of Pakistan after partition. He was labeled as traitor of Pakistan and put into jail for 33 years. He was a founder of separatist Sindudesh movement which is still strong in Sindh.

Prince Aga Khan III was a 48^th Imam of Nizari Ismaili (Shia) community across the world. It is important to know who they are. His grandfather Prince Aga Khan I was born in Iran. He had mixed relationship with Shah of Iran. To cut short the long story, their relationship worsened and he arrived in Mumbai along with his family and followers with the help of British. He was sufficiently honored by British as he helped them in wars in Afghanistan, Sindh etc. Therefore, British gave him a title of Prince, pension and protection. British also helped him to get the control over native Khoja Muslims which Khojas resisted vehemently.

Prince Aga Khan III was awarded with many titles by Queen of England and helped enrolling in Cambridge University. He was a founding member and the first President of Muslim League. He demanded a separate Muslim nation to British right from the beginning. Although, he was originator of demand of Pakistan, he never became a part of it. Today, majority Sunni Pakistanis consider Ismailis as Kafir. The recent attacked on a bus of Ismailis in Karachi is an example of it. 

Khawaja Nazimuddin was part of Dhaka’s Nawab family. He received his education from Trinity Hall Cambridge and Bar at Law from Middle Temple. He was Chief Minister of Bengal from 1943 to 45. British showered multiple honors on him. He became the second Governor General of Pakistan after death of Jinnah in 1948 and became second Prime Minister of Pakistan after Liaquat khan’s assassination in 1951.

Liaquat Ali Khan was part of Nawab family of Karnal a large estate spanning from Punjab to UP. He was a Sunni Muslim. His family helped British in 1857 independence war resulted in strong ties with British. His family made fortunes with the help of British. British arranged grants and scholarships for him. He completed his law degree from Oxford University. He returned to India in 1923. He joined ML and started his parliamentary career from 1926. He generally contested from UP and elected with heavy margins. He was finance minister of India in 1946-47. He became the first Prime Minister of Pakistan after partition. He was PM till 1951. But it was very challenging period for him as he was outsider to geography of Pakistan. His princely state had become the part of India. The most of Pakistani top leadership were from newly created India or Bengal. As Liaquat knew that he will not be able to win election in newly Pakistan, he ensured that he would remain in power without election. After Jinnah’s death, he passed Objective Resolution in 1949 and it was beginning of Pakistan becoming an Islamic state. It was necessary for people like him, the politically insecure Muslim elite, those had migrated from the Muslim minority provinces of India. Although, he was trusted right hand of Jinnah and Jinnah made him PM of Pakistan, their relationship deteriorated at the end. When Liaquat visited Jinnah in Ziarat in his last days. Jinnah told his sister Fatima, that Liaquat is here to see how long he would be alive. He was murdered in Rawalpindi rally in 1951 allegedly by US.   

Muhammad Ali Jinnah was a Shia Muslim and born to trader family in 1876. His father’s partner sent him to England for studies where he became barrister from Lincoln’s college. He returned to India in 1897 and started legal practice. He was youngest, highly paid and most western mannered barrister in Mumbai. After joining Congress, he was part of moderate group of Namdar Gokhale. During his days in Congress, he was strong promoter of Hindu Muslim unity. He was against separate electorates for Muslim. He was away in London from 1930 to 34 as felt isolated in Indian politics. During his stay in London, it is believed that Muhammad Iqbal (poet of सारे जहाँ से अच्छा) convinced him to return to India and lead the Muslim community. He also convinced him that Muslim needs separate state. He often quoted Iqbal in his speeches and called him as his mentor. Nawabs of UP also requested him to return to India and lead Muslims. The front runner was Liaquat Ali. He convinced other Muslim leaders for leadership of Jinnah. Jinnah saw an opportunity of ruling Muslim state. He agreed and returned to India. He demanded sovereign Pakistan with dominion status in 1946. He was very selfish in my opinion. He dumped western dressing and adopted Muslim attire when he saw his dream is coming true. He sold his mansion in Delhi for hefty sum before partition. After partition, he demanded prime locations on beach of Karachi in lieu of properties he left in Mumbai. After partition, he became the Governor General. As indicated earlier, his relations with Liaquat deteriorated. When Jinnah arrived in Karachi from Ziarat on the last day of his life, an ambulance sent to him without fuel, which hastened his death and he died on the roads of Karachi on 11-Sept-1948!

They belonged to all faiths of Islam. They were England educated lawyers. They had taken favors from British. They were power hungry and knew that they can’t get it in united India. Mutual suspicion was a common factor. Almost everyone met with horrific death. One can ask one question. What did they get at the end!

If you think that only Muslim were responsible for partition, then it would be half-truth. Jogendra Nath Mandal, a Hindu leader (Lawyer!), of Schedule Caste Federation supported the resolution of Pakistan in Bengal’s assembly and became the first law minister of Pakistan after partition. He realized his mistake after 2 years. He returned to Calcutta and died in wilderness.

We believe that Jinnah was responsible for partition of India. Even Mountbatten said so. But the truth is far from this. Only Bengal assembly passed the resolution of Pakistan with the help of SCF. In fact, if Mandal would have not helped Suhrawardy in passing the resolution, the demand of Pakistan would have been untenable. Sind could not dare to pass it in 1946 as they had majority by only 1. Frontier Gandhi always supported Congress for united India. His party was in power in Frontier region in 1946. Baluchistan was in favor of joining India. One can make a conclusion that majority of Muslims in pre-partition India were not in favor of Pakistan. But, British never wanted to leave united India. They used their cronies like Nawab of UP and Bengal. These Nawabs always had a dream of ruling complete India and they wanted a state to realize their dream. Pakistan’s next 4 wars with India is testimony of this belief. British along with these Nawabs used Jinnah as mask and written the biggest tragedy of 20^th century and we are still receiving the brunt of it.

Urdu

It is very difficult to find out the origin of any language similar to any river. It can’t be fixed with any geographic location or timeframe. They evolves over the centuries and flow similar to any big river by changing its bank, route and width. Sometimes it is flooded and sometimes completely dehydrated. Something similar happens to many languages. Urdu is one of them.

Urdu immediately reminds us sher and shayari. Rhyme in Urdu makes it very pleasant to listen. Decorative, ornamental words makes it very rich language. Therefore, no other language can compete with Urdu in Sher and Gazal. One theory says that she was born in Deccan plateau. This theory is convenient to me. Therefore, I want to believe in it. Urdu has adopted Persian script and has many words from Persian and Arabic. It is essentially Indo-Persian language. But interestingly, Persian language itself is an Indo-European language. Urdu has both Arabic and Turkey words but they are in Persian form. Around 99% Urdu verbs have root in Sanskrit and Prakrit. Therefore, Urdu is essentially an Indian language.

In my previous blog, I shared my experience with Pakistani Pathan driver while coming to Riyadh airport. He was talking to me in Urdu and I was talking to him in Hindi. Both are the same language and earlier called as “Hindustani”. British divided it into two, Urdu for Muslims and Hindi for Hindus. Although any language can’t be property of any religion, British intentionally did this sin and we Indians are still continuing with it.

After the partition of India, Urdu became the sole national language of Pakistan. I asked that Pathani driver which part of Pakistan speak Urdu as their mother tongue. He was completely confused with my question and started murmuring Sindh speak Sindhi, Punjab speak Punjabi, Frontier speaks Pashtun. I am adding one more. East Pakistan (present day Bangladesh) speaks Bangla! As an innocent person, he started wondering why Urdu is their National Language when it is not mother tongue of any region of Pakistan! This question still haunts many Pakistanis.

It is an interesting story of creation of Pakistan. But I will write about it sometime later. After partition, Pakistan declared Urdu as sole National Language and it sow the seeds of partition of it. Bengalis felt that it was they who created Pakistan for Jinnah and he is imposing Urdu on them! Bengalis were 44 million out of total population of 69 million of entire Pakistan. Pakistan’s Public Service Commission removed Bangla from the list of approved subjects. It ignited demonstrations in Dhaka University in 1948. Jinnah arrived in Dhaka in March 1948 in the middle of agitation. He declared Urdu and only Urdu would be sole National Language of Pakistan during one public meeting. Although language dispute resolved in 1956. But by then Urdu became the sole cause of partition of Pakistan!

Indians started distancing from Urdu as soon as it became the national language of Pakistan. Although it is still official language of 6 states of India, but it has decorative status and not being used as official language of any government communication except J&K. Aligarh Muslim University and Osmania University used Urdu as medium of education. Both of them have already dropped it as medium of education. Non-Urdu speaking Pakistanis finding it difficult to learn and it became the language of only elite people. Long political unrest in Pakistan took a huge toll on Urdu literacy. Bollywood movies patronized Urdu for long. So many Urdu shayars entertained us with wonderful shayari. Lot of movies were made in Urdu in past. But now, I have not heard any Urdu movie made in Bollywood in recent past. Urdu shayars are also on decline in India.

It is very sad to see that Urdu, which has seen glorious days in past, is going to the path of decline. This is, in my opinion, just because it was attributed as Muslim’s language. Insha’Allah, it will one day free herself from the clutches of religion and achieve its past glory!!