Today is 2nd Oct and India is remembering two of her great children Mahatma Gandhi and Lal Bahadur Shastri. Today, they must be asking a question to their fellow party members, “Where have you taken my Congress?” They are not the only one, but the rest of India must be puzzled with this question.
The recent turmoil in Punjab puzzled even very senior Congress leaders like P. Chidambaram, Kapil Sibbal, Manish Tiwari etc. Who is taking the decision in the Congress Party now? Many political analysts say that making Siddhu as Punjab state president and removal of Amarinder Singh as CM was Rahul’s decision. But I feel that it was Priyanka Vadra’s decision. She might have forced ailing Sonia Gandhi to execute it. The Gandhi family deliberately disturbed their most stable and performing government in Punjab. I always felt before 2019 that Priyanka is Congress’s trump card against Narendra Modi. She will revive Congress if responsibility is given. But nowadays, I feel that Rahul is more capable than Priyanka.
The Congress party has completely failed in state after states in surviving their government. In fact, they had given their governments to BJP on the golden platter in states like Goa, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Puducherry. BJP is replacing them wherever Congress is at second position and taking second position. BJP has successfully done it in Orissa and West Bengal. They will do it in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana in the next election. But the irony is that Congress is celebrating their own defeat in West Bengal and happy that BJP could not win West Bengal. The Congress govts are in trouble in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh due to power struggle within the party. The Gandhi family is completely clueless on how to handle it. Why is it happening? Is Sonia unable to control the tantrums of Rahul and Priyanka? I do not know what the real answer is. Group 23 is unaware of it. Then how would the common citizen know?
I partially agree with Kanhaiya Kumar that the Congress party must be saved. In short, he is also agreeing that Congress is in trouble. But I feel that it is in the interest of the country and democracy that there must be a strong opposition party at the center. At this moment, only Congress is capable of doing it. They say power goes into the head and corrupts the men. There is no guarantee that BJP will remain a non corrupt party for a long period. BJP can still get a person like Shankar Singh Vaghela in future.
The following figure shows my belief in the political spectrum in India.
Figure 1: Political Spectrum of Indian Political Parties
India’s left politics is crowded and its vote share is eroding. However, left space would be there in India. The centrist votes are now taking a firm position. The extreme criticism of Narendra Modi and constant attack on Hindutva/RSS is galvanizing this polarization. They are either moving towards left or right. The centrist space is rapidly shrinking in India. But my personal opinion is that it is leaning towards center of right i.e. BJP
The Congress Party has been shifting their leftist, socialist shades very frequently. Mr. Nehru started the process of moving from the Centrist party to the left leaning party. But Mrs. Gandhi accelerated it in her tenure. Nationalization of banks, LIC, airlines business happened during their period. Mr. Rajiv Gandhi started understanding the benefits of liberalization and moving towards the right. Mr. Narasimha Rao and Mr. Manmohan Singh brought Congress once again to the center. It benefited India.
Figure 2: Shifting Red of Congress
It is beyond my imagination why did Rahul Gandhi bring Congress very close to the left? He is criticizing each economic policy, defense policy. He is very vocal in criticizing all big industrialists and painting them as if they are looting India and they do not have any role in the economic progress of India. The communists have been sending their moles in Congress since independence. Krishna Menon, Nurul Hasan, Mohan Kumaramangalam, Mani Shankar Aiyer, Jayanthi Natarajan, Jairam Ramesh are few examples. Now Rahul Gandhi has brought fresh and young leftist to Congress i.e. Kanhaiya Kumar and Jignesh Mewani.
India’s king maker states viz. Uttar Pradesh (80), Maharashtra (48), West Bengal (42), Bihar (40) and Tamil Nadu (39) make up 249 (~46%) out of 543 Lok Sabha seats. I call MP (29), Karnataka (28), Gujarat (26) and Rajasthan (25) as Saffron states (~20% of seats). Although Congress has been steadily declining in Kingmaker states, they still have sizable voters in Saffron states. They have good support in Maharashtra, Kerala (20), Assam (14), Jharkhand (14), Punjab (13), Chhattisgarh (11) and Haryana (10). In short, Congress has sizable voters in ~240 to 250 Lok Sabha constituencies. No other opposition party has such strength. Therefore, Congress has a moral responsibility to emerge as a strong opposition party. If Gandhi family is not taking this initiative, the voters will force other Congress leaders to take some strong decisions. What are the possible scenarios?
1. Gandhi family understands the need of a strong, active, hardworking and performing president of Congress party and make a way for some good candidate. They will still control the party behind the curtain. They can adopt a model similar to BJP. Everyone knows who controls the BJP even if J. P. Nadda is president. The Gandhi family needs a very good advisor like Ahmed Patel immediately to implement it. They will have to make tactical move towards the center. They can’t win without attracting Hindu votes which are steadily polarizing.
2. Many political analysts feel that Congress will split vertically. It would be interesting to see whether Group 23 splits it. Amarinder Singh will soon form his own regional party. My view is that many Group 23 members tried their luck in the BJP. But the BJP did not heed them.
3. TMC and AAP started seeing opportunities in the weak Congress. They started encroaching in Congress space. AAP already started it in Punjab, Gujarat, Goa and Uttar Pradesh. TMC feels that they have an opportunity of taking over Congress votes in Assam. They have already started expanding in Tripura and Goa.
4. Group 23 will not split the party. But they will leave Congress and join erstwhile Congress parties like NCP, TMC, Amarinder Singh new party, YSR Congress etc.
Only option 1 will prove a viable option for fighting against BJP. Let’s hope wisdom prevails on the Gandhi family and take steps towards Option 1. Otherwise, as many political analysts believe, Congress Mukt Bharat (काँग्रेस मुक्त भारत) will be a reality by Mar-22!
Satish Gundawar
2-Oct-2022
