Thursday 9 November 2023

12th Fail


Yesterday, I got an opportunity to watch Vidhu Vinod Chopra’s new movie “12th Fail” based on the novel of the same name. This movie is based on a biography of IPS officer Manoj Kumar Sharma. Since he is very good friend of my brother-in-law, we decided to watch it. Manoj Kumar is from humble village in Chambal basin in Madhya Pradesh and was living in poverty. He was impressed by honesty of one police officer, got an inspiration and decided to become an honest police officer. His quest for becoming a police officer forced him to go to Gwalior and finally landed in New Delhi. His struggle for becoming an IPS officer has been depicted in this movie excellently. Since the movie has been produced and directed by Vidhu Vinod Chopra, the story is nicely narrated and shoot. A story telling is of very high quality and keeps one engaged continuously. The movie made me emotional multiple times. It has strong message, “Cheating छोड़ना पड़ेगा” (give up cheating), “Restart your life”, “hard work pays” and many more. In short, everyone MUST watch this movie and ensure that your children watch it. All schools must show this movie to their students. It will definitely motivate them. They will realized that nothing is impossible in life, if one put hard work like Manoj Kumar Sharma!

But what motivated me to write this blog? It is not merely to encourage you to watch this movie. But we see many Manoj Kumar around us. What amazed me the most is that we have very weak academic infrastructure, huge poverty, weak governance, institutional corruption, high unemployment. कुछ गिनती की जगह के लिये भीड़ बकरी समान लोग  जाते हैं| But still Bharat continues to produce people like Manoj Kumar! His grand mother and mother were illiterate, but they wanted to see Manoj Kumar to become a successful man in his life. We see Manoj Kumar in all walks of life. We have many examples who spent their childhood in extreme poverty but then hugely successful in politics, spirituality, sports, civil services, industry, entertainment, science and technology. There are many such great examples. Our honorable Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi is tall example in politics. MS Dhoni, Munaf Patel, Yashasvi Jaiswal, Rinku Singh in cricket. The gold medalist Sheetal Devi in paralympic. Nawazuddin Siddiqui in the film industry. Dr. A. P. J. Abdul Kalam and K. Sivan in space technology. Ramdev Baba in Spirituality. There is a long list in industry. However, we don’t have to really see such famous names for our role models. But there are multiple such role models in our personal sphere. I spent my childhood in Pauni in Bhandara District of Maharashtra which is very small and layback town. It has produced such role models who had very limited or less resources in their childhood. My classmate in school and friend Manohar Ramteke, world renowned ICMR scientist Dr. Rahul Gajbhiye, Pallavi Mohadikar, founder of Karagiri Sarees had very humble and impoverish childhood. Their achievements are no less than that of Manoj Kumar! What is this unique quality in Bharat? How can Bharat continue to produce such people in such chaotic and imperfect conditions?

You may differ or disagree with me or you may have some different opinion, perspective. But I think Bharat is unique in this. Each Bharatiya has four DNA viz. mathematics (intelligence), Warrior (brave, hard work), music (creativity) and business (enterprising). Each individual has these four DNAs without any exception of religion, race, caste, region, sex, language, economic condition, urban or rural. Whosoever is successful in activating all these four DNAs, will set an example in Bharat. 1200 years of constant brutal invasion and foreign rules had a huge impact on Bharatiya. They forgot their genuine DNAs. Bharatiya are now settling down in last 75 years of independence and slowly regaining, reclaiming, remembering their true identity. We started seeing such Bharatiya stalwarts all over the globe. This is just beginning!

Dr. Babasaheb Ambedkar had repeatedly given one advice to all Bharatiya during his speeches. “Get Up, Get Educated, Become Prosperous” (“उठाशिका अणि मोठे व्हा). His prophetic advice has started showing its effect and Manoj Kumar Sharma is just one example of it!

Satish Gundawar

09-Nov-2023

Monday 14 August 2023

2024 General Election

Mr. Narendra Modi has already started his 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign with inauguration of new Parliament. He built upon it when he inaugurated Bharat Mandapam in Aug. The opposition parties repeated the same mistake what Chandrababu Naidu made in 2018 and they initiated no confidence motion in Aug-23. In fact, they gave an opportunity to ruling BJP to put forward a balance sheet of their performance in Lok Sabha and opened the dark history of Congress’s atrocities in North-East. He will get one more opportunity in Dec-23 when he inaugurates Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. In short, the state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana have no significance on 2024 Lok Sabha election as seen in 2019. Therefore, the election pundits have started prediction of 2024 Lok Sabha election.

Each election is unique and different. Therefore, previous election data can’t decide the outcome of the next election. But it can give some indications on what may happen. This is my small effort towards that. I am putting some data points to ponder. You may draw your own conclusion based on it.

A Brief Election Result Summary for Last 5 Lok Sabha Election:

  • BJP has already reached to ~37% vote share in 2024. Each incremental change will add significant number of seats.
  • The Congress vote share is eroding by each general election.
  • The small and regional parties have significant say in general elections. But their influence is wanning by each general election.
  • Year

    BJP

    Congress

    Rest

    NDA

    UPA

    1999

    182 (23.75%)

    114 (28.3%)

    249 (47.95%)

    302

     

    2004

    138 (22.16%)

    145 (26.53%)

    262 (51.31%)

    189

    218

    2009

    116 (18.8%)

    206 (28.55%)

    223 (52.65%)

    158

    262

    2014

    282 (31%)

    44 (19.3%)

    219 (49.7%)

    336

    60

    2019

    303 (37.3%)

    52 (19.46%)

    190 (47.95)

    352

    91

*The number in the brackets are percentage of the total votes.

The Distribution of States Based on Their Influence:

I have divided the states into the following categories.

·       King Maker States: The political party who wins at least 3 states of these states will surely form the govt at center. These are ~46% of the total seats.

·       Saffron States: The states where BJP and Congress fight directly with each other. Hindutva has major influence and BJP has large support base here. These are ~24% of the total seats.

·       Promising States: They do not decide who will form the government at the center. But they can play a major role in giving stability to the government. Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh was a King Maker state before division of the state. These are ~17% of the total seats.


King Maker States

Seats

Saffron States

Seats

Promising States

Seats

Uttar Pradesh

80

Madhya Pradesh

29

Odisha

21

Maharashtra

48

Karnataka

28

Andhra Pradesh

25

West Bengal

42

Gujarat

26

Telangana

17

Bihar

40

Rajasthan

25

Assam

14

Tamil Nadu

39

Haryana

10

Jharkhand

14

 

 

Chhattisgarh

11

 

 

 

249

 

129

 

91

These are overall ~86% seats out of 543. The remaining 74 seats are from the smaller states. They can’t influence who will form the govt at the center. Therefore, the highest focus will be on King Maker states, followed by on Saffron States and then Promising States.

The Comparison of BJP and INC Vote Share in King Maker States:

INC got ~10% seats than what BJP got in last 2 elections in King Maker states. This is where INC has lot to make up their losses. BJP had won 3-3.5 states out of 5 states in last 2 elections.

King Maker States

BJP

Congress

 

Total Seats 

2014

2019

2014

2019

Uttar Pradesh

80

71(73)

62(64)

2

1

Maharashtra

48

22(41)

23(41)

4(7)

1(5)

West Bengal

42

2

18

4

2

Bihar

40

22(33)

17(39)

1

1

Tamil Nadu

39

1(38)

0(1)

0

8

Total

249

118(187)

120(141)

11(18)

13(18)

*The number in the brackets are NDA and UPA numbers

The Congress had improved its tally from 2014 to 2019. But it is interesting to see their numbers.

Congress Seats in 2019

52

Kerala

15

Telangana

3

Tamil Nadu

8

Assam

3

Punjab

8

Chhattisgarh

2

 

 

West Bengal

2

Total

31

 

10

·      31 out of 52 seats are from 3 states. INC won Punjab and Kerala on their own. Alliance with DMK helped them in Tamil Nadu in 2019.

·       INC may be able to retain their supremacy in Kerala. But there is no guarantee as Communists are equally strong in Kerala.

·       They have lost Punjab all together. Captain Amarinder Singh has already left Congress and joined BJP. INC’s earlier president Sunil Jakhar left and now he is the president of BJP in Punjab. SAD, INC and BJP are marginalized forces in Punjab now and AAP is the major force.

·       INC’s performance in Tamil Nadu will depends upon performance of DMK.

It will be very difficult for INC to recover the losses of these 3 states elsewhere.

See how BJP has improved their performance in the last election.

BJP Seat Share

2014

2019

+50% Vote Share

136

224

Margin + 3 lacs votes

42

105

Margin + 2 lacs votes

 

164

·       BJP won ~41% of total Lok Sabha seats with more than 50% votes. This gives them a solid foundation for 2024 election.

·       They have good control over 3 to 3.5 states of King Maker States.

·       They had excellent performance in all 6 Saffron States.

·       BJP performed well in 2 out 5 Promising States.

What Next for BJP for 2024 Election?

·       BJP has only 1 state (Uttar Pradesh) secured from King Maker state.

·       It is very difficult for them to achieve big in Tamil Nadu unless voters move towards AIADMK.

·       Numerically I.N.D.I.A has advantage in Maharashtra and Bihar. Therefore, BJP is putting all the efforts to get them back into their fold. The recent Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar episodes are in that direction. The similar efforts will be seen in Bihar as 2024 approaches.

·       BJP cadre is very demoralized in West Bengal due to inaction of central leadership when their local cadre was attached by TMC in state and local elections.

·       Will BJP agree to make alliance with SAD and TDP once again? Will it benefit them in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh?

·       BJP’s election manifesto will be full of aspiration of new India. BJP’s main campaign will be on,

o   IPC, CrPC reform. They have already prepared the bill and given it to the standing committee for their review. They will promise votes on it.

o   Uniform Civil Code has been in their election manifesto. They will promise votes on it.

o   They will spell out what will be their New Education Policy (NEP)?

o   They will promise on Industrial, economical, defense and international policy.

o   Their campaign focus will be on development, development and only development.

What Next for the Congress for 2024 Election?

·       Many Indians did not know till Mr. Narendra Modi told in the parliament that INC used Air Force to attack Mizoram. Will I.N.D.I.A partners become a part of INC’s atrocities in North-East in 60s and 70s? Old socialist block (SP, RJD, JDU) will be very careful when their patron Ram Manohar Lohia had openly criticized the Congress for that. Will TMC, AAP, DMK defend them on this?

·       INC had won only one seat in states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar (King Maker states) in 2019. INC’s alliance in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar did not bring good result for them previously. There is a high possibility that these states may become Congress Mukta in 2024 elections.

·       BJP is emerging as a major force in Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. INC may vacate number 2 position from here and BJP may takeover that place. There is a high possibility that these states may become Congress Mukta in 2024 elections.

·       The regional parties like TMC, DMK, SP, RJD, JDU will have major influence on this election. Interestingly, all of them are part of I.N.D.I.A coalition at this moment.

·       How is INC going to manage their alliance with AAP in Punjab, New Delhi, and Gujarat?

·       Will INC agree for minor role in Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar (King Maker states)?

·       BRS has already excused from I.N.D.I.A. AAP and TMC may excuse themselves in near future.

·       What will be manifesto of INC? What will be their stand on UCC, Penal code reforms, new education policy? What will their manifesto cover on industrial, international, defense policy? INC or I.N.D.I.A have not spelled out any of these as yet. They are together just to remove Narendra Modi. Will it attract common voters?

My Take:

BJP had won 224 seats with over 50% vote share. They will have to put very small efforts to retain them. There are ~100 to ~125 (Tamil Nadu ~35, Kerala ~20, Punjab ~10, Assam ~5, West Bengal ~10, Andhra Pradesh ~15, Telangana ~10, other states ~10) where BJP never won previously. BJP has already started working on at least 50 seats from them. BJP is equally posed for remaining ~200 seats. Therefore, there would be real fight in these ~250 seats. Even if BJP win ~50% from these ~250 seats, then they would reach to ~350 seats easily. The Congress may go below 2014 tally!

The following is my prediction:

 

Total Seats

BJP

NDA

King Maker

249

121

175

Saffron

129

120

120

Promising

91

34

34

Total

469

275

329

Smaller States

74

29

29

Grand Total

543

304

358

 Satish Gundawar

14-Aug-2023