Mr. Narendra Modi has already started his 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign with inauguration of new Parliament. He built upon it when he inaugurated Bharat Mandapam in Aug. The opposition parties repeated the same mistake what Chandrababu Naidu made in 2018 and they initiated no confidence motion in Aug-23. In fact, they gave an opportunity to ruling BJP to put forward a balance sheet of their performance in Lok Sabha and opened the dark history of Congress’s atrocities in North-East. He will get one more opportunity in Dec-23 when he inaugurates Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. In short, the state elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana have no significance on 2024 Lok Sabha election as seen in 2019. Therefore, the election pundits have started prediction of 2024 Lok Sabha election.
Each election is unique and different. Therefore, previous
election data can’t decide the outcome of the next election. But it can give
some indications on what may happen. This is my small effort towards that. I am
putting some data points to ponder. You may draw your own conclusion based on
it.
A Brief Election Result Summary for Last 5 Lok Sabha
Election:
- BJP has already reached to ~37% vote share in 2024. Each incremental change will add significant number of seats.
- The Congress vote share is eroding by each general election.
- The small and regional parties have significant say in general elections. But their influence is wanning by each general election.
Year
BJP
Congress
Rest
NDA
UPA
1999
182 (23.75%)
114 (28.3%)
249 (47.95%)
302
2004
138 (22.16%)
145 (26.53%)
262 (51.31%)
189
218
2009
116 (18.8%)
206 (28.55%)
223 (52.65%)
158
262
2014
282 (31%)
44 (19.3%)
219 (49.7%)
336
60
2019
303 (37.3%)
52 (19.46%)
190 (47.95)
352
91
*The number in the brackets are percentage of the total votes.
The Distribution of States Based on Their Influence:
I have divided the states into the following categories.
·
King Maker States: The political party who
wins at least 3 states of these states will surely form the govt at center.
These are ~46% of the total seats.
·
Saffron States: The states where BJP and
Congress fight directly with each other. Hindutva has major influence and BJP
has large support base here. These are ~24% of the total seats.
·
Promising States: They do not decide who
will form the government at the center. But they can play a major role in
giving stability to the government. Erstwhile Andhra Pradesh was a King Maker
state before division of the state. These are ~17% of the total seats.
King Maker States |
Seats |
Saffron States |
Seats |
Promising States |
Seats |
|
Uttar
Pradesh |
80 |
Madhya
Pradesh |
29 |
Odisha |
21 |
|
Maharashtra |
48 |
Karnataka |
28 |
Andhra
Pradesh |
25 |
|
West
Bengal |
42 |
Gujarat |
26 |
Telangana |
17 |
|
Bihar |
40 |
Rajasthan |
25 |
Assam |
14 |
|
Tamil
Nadu |
39 |
Haryana |
10 |
Jharkhand |
14 |
|
|
|
Chhattisgarh |
11 |
|
|
|
|
249 |
|
129 |
|
91 |
These are overall ~86% seats out of
543. The remaining 74 seats are from the smaller states. They can’t influence who
will form the govt at the center. Therefore, the highest focus will be on King
Maker states, followed by on Saffron States and then Promising States.
The Comparison of BJP and INC Vote Share in King Maker
States:
INC got ~10% seats than what BJP got in last 2 elections in
King Maker states. This is where INC has lot to make up their losses. BJP had
won 3-3.5 states out of 5 states in last 2 elections.
|
King Maker States |
BJP |
Congress |
|||
|
|
Total Seats |
2014 |
2019 |
2014 |
2019 |
|
Uttar Pradesh |
80 |
71(73) |
62(64) |
2 |
1 |
|
Maharashtra |
48 |
22(41) |
23(41) |
4(7) |
1(5) |
|
West Bengal |
42 |
2 |
18 |
4 |
2 |
|
Bihar |
40 |
22(33) |
17(39) |
1 |
1 |
|
Tamil Nadu |
39 |
1(38) |
0(1) |
0 |
8 |
|
Total |
249 |
118(187) |
120(141) |
11(18) |
13(18) |
*The number in the brackets are NDA and UPA numbers
The Congress had improved its tally from 2014 to 2019. But it
is interesting to see their numbers.
|
Congress
Seats in 2019 |
52 |
||
|
Kerala |
15 |
Telangana |
3 |
|
Tamil
Nadu |
8 |
Assam |
3 |
|
Punjab |
8 |
Chhattisgarh |
2 |
|
|
|
West
Bengal |
2 |
|
Total |
31 |
|
10 |
· 31 out of 52 seats are from 3 states. INC won Punjab and Kerala on their own. Alliance with DMK helped them in Tamil Nadu in 2019.
·
INC may be able to retain their supremacy in
Kerala. But there is no guarantee as Communists are equally strong in Kerala.
·
They have lost Punjab all together. Captain Amarinder
Singh has already left Congress and joined BJP. INC’s earlier president Sunil Jakhar
left and now he is the president of BJP in Punjab. SAD, INC and BJP are marginalized
forces in Punjab now and AAP is the major force.
·
INC’s performance in Tamil Nadu will depends
upon performance of DMK.
See how BJP has improved their performance in the last
election.
|
BJP
Seat Share |
2014 |
2019 |
|
+50%
Vote Share |
136 |
224 |
|
Margin
+ 3 lacs votes |
42 |
105 |
|
Margin
+ 2 lacs votes |
|
164 |
·
BJP won ~41% of total Lok Sabha seats with more
than 50% votes. This gives them a solid foundation for 2024 election.
·
They have good control over 3 to 3.5 states of
King Maker States.
·
They had excellent performance in all 6 Saffron States.
·
BJP performed well in 2 out 5 Promising States.
What Next for BJP for 2024 Election?
·
BJP has only 1 state (Uttar Pradesh) secured
from King Maker state.
·
It is very difficult for them to achieve big in
Tamil Nadu unless voters move towards AIADMK.
·
Numerically I.N.D.I.A has advantage in Maharashtra
and Bihar. Therefore, BJP is putting all the efforts to get them back into
their fold. The recent Eknath Shinde, Ajit Pawar episodes are in that
direction. The similar efforts will be seen in Bihar as 2024 approaches.
·
BJP cadre is very demoralized in West Bengal due
to inaction of central leadership when their local cadre was attached by TMC in
state and local elections.
·
Will BJP agree to make alliance with SAD and TDP
once again? Will it benefit them in Punjab and Andhra Pradesh?
·
BJP’s election manifesto will be full of aspiration
of new India. BJP’s main campaign will be on,
o
IPC, CrPC reform. They have already prepared the
bill and given it to the standing committee for their review. They will promise
votes on it.
o
Uniform Civil Code has been in their election manifesto.
They will promise votes on it.
o
They will spell out what will be their New Education
Policy (NEP)?
o
They will promise on Industrial, economical, defense
and international policy.
o
Their campaign focus will be on development,
development and only development.
What Next for the Congress for 2024 Election?
·
Many Indians did not know till Mr. Narendra Modi
told in the parliament that INC used Air Force to attack Mizoram. Will I.N.D.I.A
partners become a part of INC’s atrocities in North-East in 60s and 70s? Old
socialist block (SP, RJD, JDU) will be very careful when their patron Ram
Manohar Lohia had openly criticized the Congress for that. Will TMC, AAP, DMK
defend them on this?
·
INC had won only one seat in states like Uttar
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar (King Maker states) in 2019. INC’s alliance in
Uttar Pradesh and Bihar did not bring good result for them previously. There is
a high possibility that these states may become Congress Mukta in 2024
elections.
·
BJP is emerging as a major force in Odisha, Andhra
Pradesh and Telangana. INC may vacate number 2 position from here and BJP may
takeover that place. There is a high possibility that these states may become
Congress Mukta in 2024 elections.
·
The regional parties like TMC, DMK, SP, RJD, JDU
will have major influence on this election. Interestingly, all of them are part
of I.N.D.I.A coalition at this moment.
·
How is INC going to manage their alliance with
AAP in Punjab, New Delhi, and Gujarat?
·
Will INC agree for minor role in Uttar Pradesh,
West Bengal and Bihar (King Maker states)?
·
BRS has already excused from I.N.D.I.A. AAP and
TMC may excuse themselves in near future.
·
What will be manifesto of INC? What will be
their stand on UCC, Penal code reforms, new education policy? What will their manifesto
cover on industrial, international, defense policy? INC or I.N.D.I.A have not spelled
out any of these as yet. They are together just to remove Narendra Modi. Will
it attract common voters?
My Take:
BJP had won 224 seats with over 50% vote share. They will
have to put very small efforts to retain them. There are ~100 to ~125 (Tamil
Nadu ~35, Kerala ~20, Punjab ~10, Assam ~5, West Bengal ~10, Andhra Pradesh ~15,
Telangana ~10, other states ~10) where BJP never won previously. BJP has
already started working on at least 50 seats from them. BJP is equally posed
for remaining ~200 seats. Therefore, there would be real fight in these ~250 seats.
Even if BJP win ~50% from these ~250 seats, then they would reach to ~350 seats
easily. The Congress may go below 2014 tally!
The following is my prediction:
|
|
Total Seats |
BJP |
NDA |
|
King Maker |
249 |
121 |
175 |
|
Saffron |
129 |
120 |
120 |
|
Promising |
91 |
34 |
34 |
|
Total |
469 |
275 |
329 |
|
Smaller States |
74 |
29 |
29 |
|
Grand Total |
543 |
304 |
358 |
14-Aug-2023
